8/22 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower, and this is precisely what played out yesterday.
Market Outlook: Neutral
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headlines
Reducing reliance on the US dollar in focus at the BRICS summit beginning today.
Key Structures
ES has done something yesterday for the first time in August: It put in two consecutive green days - a true rarity. The questions is, can bulls keep it going? The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed on Tuesday, causing 3 days of selling. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4487-90.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4411, 4405 (major), 4392-94 (major), 4382, 4369-72 (major), 4345-48 (major), 4340, 4328, 4315-19 (major), 4304 (major), 4287 (major), 4275, 4267 (major), 4247-50, 4236 (major), 4220 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4422-25 (major), 4432, 4442 (major), 4448, 4465 (major), 4473, 4486-90 (major), 4500, 4511 (major), 4517, 4527, 4542 (major), 4560, 4575, 4580, 4585 (major).
Trading Plan
My trading plan is to be very cautious today, especially after a big, one directional move, below major resistances. Longs are risky (chasing into a resistance), and price loves to chop hard in these zones. I will be picking my spots very carefully and patience will be key. I will not be trying to predict the action, but rather react with no preconceptions.
Wrap Up
In summary, bulls aren't out of the woods yet by any means, but the fact we spent two days basing now is a healthier sign. My general lean is we can base build now 4392-4420s. This would set up a push to 4442+. If 4392 fails today, it's a big warning sign and I'd be quite cautious on longs below there.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower, and this is precisely what played out yesterday.
Market Outlook: Neutral
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headlines
Reducing reliance on the US dollar in focus at the BRICS summit beginning today.
Key Structures
ES has done something yesterday for the first time in August: It put in two consecutive green days - a true rarity. The questions is, can bulls keep it going? The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed on Tuesday, causing 3 days of selling. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4487-90.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4411, 4405 (major), 4392-94 (major), 4382, 4369-72 (major), 4345-48 (major), 4340, 4328, 4315-19 (major), 4304 (major), 4287 (major), 4275, 4267 (major), 4247-50, 4236 (major), 4220 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4422-25 (major), 4432, 4442 (major), 4448, 4465 (major), 4473, 4486-90 (major), 4500, 4511 (major), 4517, 4527, 4542 (major), 4560, 4575, 4580, 4585 (major).
Trading Plan
My trading plan is to be very cautious today, especially after a big, one directional move, below major resistances. Longs are risky (chasing into a resistance), and price loves to chop hard in these zones. I will be picking my spots very carefully and patience will be key. I will not be trying to predict the action, but rather react with no preconceptions.
Wrap Up
In summary, bulls aren't out of the woods yet by any means, but the fact we spent two days basing now is a healthier sign. My general lean is we can base build now 4392-4420s. This would set up a push to 4442+. If 4392 fails today, it's a big warning sign and I'd be quite cautious on longs below there.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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