Technically, anyone short the Dollar (DXY) is a madman
This chart is pretty simple. There is a decades long falling wedge and price action has broken out of the wedge and spend 4 years retesting the wedge as support. After that we got some lift-off and DXY was rejected by the 200 quarter SMA and had a pull back. Currently price actions has set a higher low and is finding support on the 100 quarter SMA.
In general, the longer it takes a falling wedge to play out the more reliable it will be when it comes to target setting. The two targets are very simple, they are the height of the wedge from initial break out (shown) or retest (not shown) or the Hight of the wedge.
I suspect once price action confirms a whole candle body above the 200 quarter SMA we will have about 5-7 years of insanity as DXY appreciates over 60%. Down below we also see the effective federal funds rate is also in a falling wedge. I have been watching this for years and have been calling for negative real interest rates for year and perhaps even nominal negative interest rates (which didn't appear) and then a massive increase in interest rates. The dollar and interest rates pumping at the same time sets up some very interesting (and painful) economic conditions.
The implications of this are very far reaching. But in short a lot of stuff is going to go down.
In general, the longer it takes a falling wedge to play out the more reliable it will be when it comes to target setting. The two targets are very simple, they are the height of the wedge from initial break out (shown) or retest (not shown) or the Hight of the wedge.
I suspect once price action confirms a whole candle body above the 200 quarter SMA we will have about 5-7 years of insanity as DXY appreciates over 60%. Down below we also see the effective federal funds rate is also in a falling wedge. I have been watching this for years and have been calling for negative real interest rates for year and perhaps even nominal negative interest rates (which didn't appear) and then a massive increase in interest rates. The dollar and interest rates pumping at the same time sets up some very interesting (and painful) economic conditions.
The implications of this are very far reaching. But in short a lot of stuff is going to go down.
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