WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: June-August 2025 - 25-August

WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: June-August 2025 Review & Week of August 25th Recommendations
Analysis Date: August 23, 2025
Market: WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
Methodology: Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min)
Volume Profile: 3-Month Monthly Analysis (June-August 2025)

Executive Summary

Market Regime: Oil has completed a major corrective phase from $72 highs to $61 lows, establishing a clear bottoming pattern with strong institutional accumulation. Current setup presents high-probability bullish swing opportunity with excellent risk/reward characteristics.

Current Status: Bullish reversal confirmed with multiple technical confluences at critical support zone. Recommended positioning for upside targets with systematic risk management protocols.

3-Month Market Structure Analysis (June-August 2025)
Phase 1: Distribution & Breakdown (June-July)
Price Action: $72 → $61 (-15% decline)

• June Peak: Heavy red volume distribution at $71-72 level indicated institutional selling
  
• July Decline: Clean Renko downtrend with sustained selling pressure
  
• Volume Profile: Minimal volume during decline, suggesting limited buying interest until $63-64 zone
  

Phase 2: Accumulation & Reversal Setup (Late July-August)
Price Action: $61 → $63.50 (+4% recovery)

• Institutional Buying: Massive green volume accumulation at $63-65 level
  
• Support Establishment: $62-63 zone showing strong buying interest
  
• Technical Reversal: DEMA crossover confirmed bullish momentum shift
  

Volume Profile Key Levels (3-Month Analysis)
Major Support Zones:

• $62-63: Primary institutional accumulation (heaviest green volume)
  
• $60-61: Secondary support with moderate green volume
  
• $58-59: Ultimate support level (limited historical volume)
  

Resistance Zones:

• $66-67: First institutional resistance (mixed volume)
  
• $69-70: Major distribution zone (heavy red volume from June)
  
• $71-72: Ultimate resistance (peak selling pressure)
  

Current Technical Analysis (August 23, 2025)
Dual Chart Assessment
$0.50 Chart (Structure Analysis):

• Trend: Clear bottoming pattern completed at $61 low
  
• Current Position: Testing above major institutional accumulation zone
  
• Volume Confirmation: Trading within heaviest 3-month green volume cluster
  
• Structure: Higher lows pattern emerging since $61 bottom
  

$0.25 Chart (Execution Analysis):

• DEMA Status: Bullish crossover confirmed (Black above Red at $63.00)
  
• DMI/ADX: +DI gaining momentum, ADX rising through 25 level
  
• Donchian Position: Price above basis, testing toward upper band
  
• Recent Action: 3 consecutive green bricks confirming upward momentum
  

Technical Confluences Supporting Bull Case

1. Volume Profile: Massive institutional support at current levels
   
2. DEMA Crossover: Clear trend reversal signal confirmed
   
3. Momentum: DMI showing bullish shift with strengthening ADX
   
4. Structure: Higher low pattern vs. $61 bottom
   
5. Risk/Reward: Excellent positioning near major support zone
   

Market Context & Macro Considerations
Current Oil Market Dynamics

• Supply: OPEC+ spare capacity at 5.9 million b/d (bearish)
  
• Demand: China slowdown offset by US resilience (neutral)
  
• Inventories: Below 5-year average (bullish)
  
• Refining: Margins supporting crude demand (bullish)
  

Federal Reserve Impact

• Policy Stance: Potential September rate cut (bullish for commodities)
  
• Dollar Weakness: Could support oil prices
  
• Inflation Expectations: Rising energy costs could influence policy
  

Seasonal Factors

• Driving Season: Peak summer demand ending (bearish)
  
• Hurricane Season: Atlantic activity potential (bullish)
  
• Refinery Maintenance: September turnaround season (mixed)
  

Conclusion & Strategic Outlook
Near-Term Assessment (1-2 weeks): The current setup represents a high-probability swing trading opportunity with exceptional risk/reward characteristics. The combination of institutional volume support, technical reversal signals, and favorable market structure creates optimal conditions for bullish positioning.

Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 months): Successful navigation through the $66-68 resistance zone could establish a broader recovery toward $70-72 levels. However, macroeconomic headwinds and seasonal factors require careful position management and profit-taking discipline.

Risk Assessment: While the setup is compelling, traders must respect the institutional accumulation levels as ultimate support. Any violation of the $62 zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and require immediate position liquidation.

Strategic Advantage: The dual Renko chart system provides both structural clarity and tactical precision, enabling confident position sizing and systematic risk management. The monthly volume profile offers institutional-level insight typically unavailable to retail traders.

Document Classification: Trading Analysis & Recommendations
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.