BITCOIN | Downwards Breakout Confirmation Area!
Hi,
I'm back in business. A little vacation is over, batteries are charged and I'm fully ready to give some trading opportunities from different markets. Obviously, the biggest interest is on BTC and I'll start from it.
After my last analysis, the price has printed a new mid-term lower high, which was slightly expected. The movement started just some dollars before the marked area but still, the overall sentiment was correct. After the drop from 11k, during my vacation, the BTC price has drifted between 10k and 11k.
On the Daily timeframe (picture is below of this post), we have an interesting "sign". Actually, this is not a sign, the price has got multiple rejections from the psychological number $10,000. The fall, which started from the beginning of August(from 12k), guided the price down around 10k and this 10k has held the Daily candles (after touching it) 8 times!! You should know that those round numbers work as great support/resistance levels but that's not all. There is also the trendline; 6 times out of 8 while the price has touched 10k it has also touched the trendline. So, those two makes the current support area pretty strong which has held the price since the mid of August.
If we look at the mentioned support area from a price action perspective, then I don't see any great bullish candlestick formation from the mentioned 10k area. Yes, there are some Dojis but nothing reliable.
Plus, the support looks strong but the price just doesn't get that needed momentum to go upwards, which leads us into the other hidden sign - if the price stays too long into a strong area then it decreases a likelihood of the bounce.
Plus+ on a Daily timeframe, we have an Evening Star candlestick formation (bearish). At the moment, it is still valid and it can work out but we need a bit more secure confirmation. Luckily, we have them!
As you understand, for me, the higher probability setup is downwards. If it goes upwards then great for those who are in longs but to me, it means nothing. No trades, no profits, no losses. Usually, if this occurs I'm just a little bit sad that the price did not reach into my great confirmation area ;)
The trade type is a breakout trade, not my favorite but the current confirmation area is pretty clean and easily readable.
The movement downwards should be confirmed after the candle close (at least 1H, better would be 4H or Daily) inside or slightly below the marked red area, then we have a confirmed...:
1. Candle close below the psychological level $10,000.
2. Candle close below the black trendline which has held the price since 9th June.
3. Candle close below short-term red and blue trendlines. Those trendlines are also short-term counter trendlines. They match really nicely with our confirmation area and I really like those counter-trendlines breakout setups.
4. Those blue trendlines make a chart pattern called triangle and after a candle close inside the red area the price has also made a breakout downwards from the triangle, which adds a bit more strength into our breakout trade opportunity.
5. Candle close inside the marked area will be a confirmation for a new short-term lower low
+. We have an impulse wave from 12k which can drive the price down.
+. We have a valid Daily bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star.
So, wait for a 1H or 4H candle close inside the marked area.
A perfect scenario should look like - a candle close $9,850-$9,950, wait for a 10k retest to get a better entry and sell it is.
If it goes upwards right away? WHATEVER, for me, this red area is a place where multiple levels get cracked and I'll wait for that. I just can't see any great price action for upwards and even if I see some signs then I don't want to share it because still, the selling confirmation area stays much stronger.
Daily:
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Good luck,
Vaido
I'm back in business. A little vacation is over, batteries are charged and I'm fully ready to give some trading opportunities from different markets. Obviously, the biggest interest is on BTC and I'll start from it.
After my last analysis, the price has printed a new mid-term lower high, which was slightly expected. The movement started just some dollars before the marked area but still, the overall sentiment was correct. After the drop from 11k, during my vacation, the BTC price has drifted between 10k and 11k.
On the Daily timeframe (picture is below of this post), we have an interesting "sign". Actually, this is not a sign, the price has got multiple rejections from the psychological number $10,000. The fall, which started from the beginning of August(from 12k), guided the price down around 10k and this 10k has held the Daily candles (after touching it) 8 times!! You should know that those round numbers work as great support/resistance levels but that's not all. There is also the trendline; 6 times out of 8 while the price has touched 10k it has also touched the trendline. So, those two makes the current support area pretty strong which has held the price since the mid of August.
If we look at the mentioned support area from a price action perspective, then I don't see any great bullish candlestick formation from the mentioned 10k area. Yes, there are some Dojis but nothing reliable.
Plus, the support looks strong but the price just doesn't get that needed momentum to go upwards, which leads us into the other hidden sign - if the price stays too long into a strong area then it decreases a likelihood of the bounce.
Plus+ on a Daily timeframe, we have an Evening Star candlestick formation (bearish). At the moment, it is still valid and it can work out but we need a bit more secure confirmation. Luckily, we have them!
As you understand, for me, the higher probability setup is downwards. If it goes upwards then great for those who are in longs but to me, it means nothing. No trades, no profits, no losses. Usually, if this occurs I'm just a little bit sad that the price did not reach into my great confirmation area ;)
The trade type is a breakout trade, not my favorite but the current confirmation area is pretty clean and easily readable.
The movement downwards should be confirmed after the candle close (at least 1H, better would be 4H or Daily) inside or slightly below the marked red area, then we have a confirmed...:
1. Candle close below the psychological level $10,000.
2. Candle close below the black trendline which has held the price since 9th June.
3. Candle close below short-term red and blue trendlines. Those trendlines are also short-term counter trendlines. They match really nicely with our confirmation area and I really like those counter-trendlines breakout setups.
4. Those blue trendlines make a chart pattern called triangle and after a candle close inside the red area the price has also made a breakout downwards from the triangle, which adds a bit more strength into our breakout trade opportunity.
5. Candle close inside the marked area will be a confirmation for a new short-term lower low
+. We have an impulse wave from 12k which can drive the price down.
+. We have a valid Daily bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star.
So, wait for a 1H or 4H candle close inside the marked area.
A perfect scenario should look like - a candle close $9,850-$9,950, wait for a 10k retest to get a better entry and sell it is.
If it goes upwards right away? WHATEVER, for me, this red area is a place where multiple levels get cracked and I'll wait for that. I just can't see any great price action for upwards and even if I see some signs then I don't want to share it because still, the selling confirmation area stays much stronger.
Daily:
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Good luck,
Vaido
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