Jumping right into this...
I am going to start with the daily. Then jump to the weekly and continue my analysis down the time frames.
Daily Overview
Shown above on the Daily, I have the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) setup with a few tweaks to color schemes. My only reason to pull it up is to show our trend off of the support, as we go down the time frames we will take a closer examination of the trend. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average implements 12 different exponential moving averages (EMA's) in an effort to analyze a market’s behavior on multiple levels. We see the faster moving EMA's (green and yellow) converging on the slower moving EMA's (red & orange) indicating a Bullish move based on this strategy only. The RSI matched the trend shift on the GMMA.
The C.M.F. however still shows a heavy sell presence.
Weekly Overview
Jumping out of order to the Weekly below, there are a few things I want to point out below.
12 Hour Overview
On the two charts below, we see the GMMA crossing bullish. However, we also see the price action at the top of our Bollinger Bands indicating an overbought scenario. The Stochastic also shows as overbought situation indicating a drop for 6-12 candles may be incoming. Please note that even with the STOCH showing this, our strongest moves in the market come when this is in overbought levels. The Bullish signal from the GMMA can be confirmed in a sense by the STOCH being at such extreme levels, but also can be declared Bearish since we see the crossover and have a capped B.B. with a bearish candle formation.
6 Hour Overview
Few things to note here: The Tom Demark Sequential shows us a clear green 9 indicating an exhaustion & trend reversal. B.B. again are capped and the STOCH is showing a slight Bearish divergence. The C.M.F. did show a nice increase in buy pressure for that rally but is now subsiding.
1 Hour Overview
Stoch & the C.M.F. show a Bearish divergence, the O.B.V. (not shown) appears healthy.
15 Minute Overview
As I am writing this we saw a tad of a sell off. Jumping down to the 15 minute we see the GMMA cross bearish as the market begins to fix the overbought scenarios we are seeing. On the Ichimoku, we see a T.K. cross indicating a Bearish move (which we are now seeing). Keep in mind this is a small time frame.
I am going to start with the daily. Then jump to the weekly and continue my analysis down the time frames.
Daily Overview
Shown above on the Daily, I have the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) setup with a few tweaks to color schemes. My only reason to pull it up is to show our trend off of the support, as we go down the time frames we will take a closer examination of the trend. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average implements 12 different exponential moving averages (EMA's) in an effort to analyze a market’s behavior on multiple levels. We see the faster moving EMA's (green and yellow) converging on the slower moving EMA's (red & orange) indicating a Bullish move based on this strategy only. The RSI matched the trend shift on the GMMA.
The C.M.F. however still shows a heavy sell presence.
Weekly Overview
Jumping out of order to the Weekly below, there are a few things I want to point out below.
- We currently sit right below the 50 period Moving Average. The weekly closes in 6 hours as of this writing. A close below the 50 M.A. is not a ideal scenario for a bull run.
- The Bearish Kijun-sen/Tenkan-sen cross (T.K. cross) shown in the yellow circle will not reverse anytime soon. The conversion line has inputs 20 candles back and has nothing but more room to drop. One thing I am noting is, I expect to see a cloud twist plotted on the weekly here shortly.
12 Hour Overview
On the two charts below, we see the GMMA crossing bullish. However, we also see the price action at the top of our Bollinger Bands indicating an overbought scenario. The Stochastic also shows as overbought situation indicating a drop for 6-12 candles may be incoming. Please note that even with the STOCH showing this, our strongest moves in the market come when this is in overbought levels. The Bullish signal from the GMMA can be confirmed in a sense by the STOCH being at such extreme levels, but also can be declared Bearish since we see the crossover and have a capped B.B. with a bearish candle formation.
6 Hour Overview
Few things to note here: The Tom Demark Sequential shows us a clear green 9 indicating an exhaustion & trend reversal. B.B. again are capped and the STOCH is showing a slight Bearish divergence. The C.M.F. did show a nice increase in buy pressure for that rally but is now subsiding.
1 Hour Overview
Stoch & the C.M.F. show a Bearish divergence, the O.B.V. (not shown) appears healthy.
15 Minute Overview
As I am writing this we saw a tad of a sell off. Jumping down to the 15 minute we see the GMMA cross bearish as the market begins to fix the overbought scenarios we are seeing. On the Ichimoku, we see a T.K. cross indicating a Bearish move (which we are now seeing). Keep in mind this is a small time frame.
Kommentar:
We closed this weekly candle right on the 50 period MA, The last time we did this was 2014.
However, as I mentioned above, I expected a little pop up (timing was off, specified within an hour) then a retest throughout the next 3 days of the above mentioned supports. I do not feel comfortable with ignoring the bearish signals I am seeing until this happens. We show a little bit of strength currently but I expect it to be short lived.
I will update this tomorrow once we see this action settle.
However, as I mentioned above, I expected a little pop up (timing was off, specified within an hour) then a retest throughout the next 3 days of the above mentioned supports. I do not feel comfortable with ignoring the bearish signals I am seeing until this happens. We show a little bit of strength currently but I expect it to be short lived.
I will update this tomorrow once we see this action settle.
All posts are for educational purposes and are simply my views of markets conditions.
Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
We are seeing a few more Bullish signals emerge on higher time frames. However, there is still plenty of Bearish signals showing. So, tread carefully. I foresee a small drop short term & then another minor unsustainable rally that ultimately leads to our retest of support levels throughout the next 3 days. We should be seeing a little pop up within the next hour of publishing this from the sell off that occurred while I was looking at the 15 minute. A Bull rally for the next month is still not out of question, but I am seeing several unsustainable signals on the short term. We need to retest not only $7,300, but potentially support at $7,100 ish before I can feel that the market is at a healthy level for a rally to our top resistance of the triangle. A retest of support does not automatically mean we are going to bounce, in fact I will be watching sell levels from all the longs opened prior to see if it holds.
When we bounced off of support as everyone held their breath, there was a lot of Bullish positions opened that created a short term overbought scenario. The reason for the "Bart Pattern" that we have seen recently is a inexperienced market over trading to unsustainable levels and then attempting to close their poor position when it collapses. This creates extreme volatility and market uncertainty.
For now, I am treading carefully on any positions Long or Short I open throughout the day.
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