🚀 Bitcoin ~ What is the Daily Most Likely Scenario?!

17. Mai 2022

Bitcoin on the daily has wicked into our Bear Market low zone (21.6K to 27.1K) between the weekly 200 & 300 EMA printing a primary low at 25.4K on the BTC Index chart. BTC began with changing the 15m time frame bull off the lows and is currently printing a series of higher lows and higher highs through the 12h time frame. The daily 21 EMA almost always rejected price from the 69K ATH to the January 2022 low. The daily 21 EMA always rejected price from the weekly 48.2K to our capitulatory 25.4K index low. While BTC maintains in a 4h uptrend many of our Green List AltCoins are tightening midterm time frame trading ranges at the lows, AKA equilibrium patterns (EQM), which are considered neutral candlestick patterns with a 54% chance to break in the direction of the bearish trend.

STS traders are focused on the daily 21 EMA and confluent 2h time frame 200 EMA dynamic resistance to zoom in the trading binoculars. We are also scouting lead AltCoin Bulls and/or Bears for early clues as to which way the Alt EQMs may break. Thus far ENS is our lead Bull breaking bull to hourly higher highs currently testing 1h 200 EMA resistance. Thus far we do not have any Green List bears breaking pivot higher lows bearish.

The traditional markets are presenting some major bearish headwinds with the rate hikes and global hyperinflation narrative. Although extremely bearish, I feel like the current scenario has a slight bullish lean. Regardless one should be prepared for both bullish or bearish price action from here. If BTC continues to push to midterm higher highs I will be scouting a daily lower high at daily 21 EMA / 2h 200 EMA dynamic resistance. A daily lower high vs 40K is certainly the most likely scenario on the first push up due to the size of the dramatic pullback. One way BTC can push into dynamic resistance while printing a series of midterm time frame higher lows is the continuation of the current possible 4h bear flag.

For me personally, I have scaled back my shorts to less than a 1:1 ratio on many of my derivative assets (Make you own trade decisions). If the ALTs break bull out of the midterm time frame EQMs I will market scale down my shorts in profit and patiently wait for signs the highly anticipated daily lower highs are set prior to reloading my shorts. Like BTC, I will be scouting daily 21 EMA / 200 EMA dynamic resistance for the ALTs. I will not be averaging down any of my long positions until I see evidence that a macro low is set. If price breaks bear I will reload my shorts to at least 1:1 short vs long and reevaluate bearish price action. The big question in bear break scenario is does price hold the currently daily lows or break to daily lower lows. Please keep in mind these dramatic macro timeframe bear breaks can take 30 – 60 days to discover a macro low. Bullish patience is key in this spot. All of our Green List coins are firmly below 4h 200 EMA dynamic resistance meaning STS rule #1… trading with the trend remains shorting.

Good luck trading my frenemies.

CHART KEY:
Monthly levels in Orange
Weekly levels in Yellow marked with Yellow arrows
Daily Levels in White

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