Bitcoin-Post-Halving-Cycle-Status-Update

7. Juli 2020

Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at bitcoins price-action, the recent events, the current important details in the formation and wave count it is trading in, and what we can examine and deduce from this to follow up the next days, hours and weeks. Bitcoin has completed its third historical and fundamental halving and now showing a long ongoing consolidation range with diminishing volatility where it will provide a heavy breakout and periods of high volatile movements again as this is what happens in almost every case after such periods. Considering this now the direction of the breakout will be the crucial part of the whole environment and I discovered some worthwhile signals which make it clear what bitcoin has to fulfill to confirm the proper breakout scenario of the huge rising channel it is trading in either to the up or downside.

As you can examine when looking at my chart is that bitcoin still trades in this long-lasting consolidation and the parallel lightly rising channel where it already confirmed the lower and upper boundary several times to mark this channel as an important stepping stone in the last time. Recently bitcoin confirmed the lower boundary again and showed some bullish momentum there but the volume is missing and there are some other meaningful factors like the head and shoulder formation you can see in the lower chart which can provide a heavy bearish breakout when confirmed to the downside. But when bitcoin manages to show some other solid signs which move the price higher to test the upper boundary again this can also turn out to be a continuation head and shoulder formation similar to those movements bitcoins has shown in the past.

Hidden Head And Shoulder Formation (4-Hour Timeframe):


Halving Cycle And Post Halving Situation (4-Hour Timeframe):


Confirmation Scenarios And Levels On The Higher Scale (Weekly Timeframe):

Furthermore, we have this giant wave count within the parallel channel which is consisting of an ABC-count each time the lower boundary confirms to the upside the higher boundary or on the contrary the higher boundary the lower boundary to the downside, these counts forming a larger formation and resulting in a big ABCDE count as you can watch in the chart. From this perspective now the wave count is matching logically coherently with the hidden head and shoulder formation which will show the significantly purposeful breakout in bitcoin when the low volatile period has ended. Besides that, you can see the bullish and bearish zones in my chart which bitcoin will successfully confirm when the proper breakout shows up.

The bullish scenario will play out when bitcoin takes out the huge resistance between 10.350 and 10.500 you can watch in my chart with a stabilization above it and the bearish scenario will play out when the lower boundary has crossed with heavy volume and momentum to the downside when this shows up it will be a good entry for trading the higher low with a short-position to the downside. At the moment, it is important to take note that bitcoin technically is still in an uptrend which has not ended yet with potential lows established since the corona-breakdowns this year, therefore, a bearish breakdown when it happens in this range will not be completely bearish as there are important support levels below which I mentioned already in past analysis, only when these levels of support do not hold there can be a considerable confirmation for ongoing bearishness on the middle-term and finally on the long-term-scale.

Right now, it is important to keep calm and rely on the proper informational input to look for possibilities and opportunities arising ahead. Although our elite channel noted some good profits in the last times I would not be overactive in this market phase as it is still a low volatile market phase which means the smaller trends within it are not necessarily supported fundamentally by good liquidity which is given in a highly volatile market movement that is supporting the underlying trends, this is why the best option in such a phase is to either keep aside and wait for the right volatility in the market or to do not expect too much from these movements as they are still not backed by the mentioned factors when this changes there can also come new occasions and alteration of the situation in general but for now we should not over speculate the environment as this does happen too often these times with no fundamentally or technically groundstone.

In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a great day and all the best to you!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.