BTC Market Update:
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it's different"
-Sir John Templeton
BTC has been trading sideways with no clear direction. Let's examine what the charts are telling us.
The bulls have defended my support zones (1,2) after breaking out of my ascending line. However, it is hitting two minor resistance ceilings above that I have noted as (A,B).
Most analyst agree that the true test for BTC will be the major resistance levels around $9,050 and $9,900.
If BTC can break beyond the minor resistance levels of (A,B) we could easily see BTC make a run for 9,000 and possibly 10,000 in the near term.
Here are my concerns: Volume and RSI tell a different story.
1. Volumes peaked as lots of buyers came in at 6k. You can see the descending blue line in the chart. Why? I think the SMART MONEY is waiting on the sidelines to see if Bitcoin can make a run past the major support zones. There's still too much risk and the momentum is lagging without any positive news. You see the SMART MONEY doesn't care if we buy BTC at 6k or 10k or 15k. We need to see a positive trend reversal forming and there's still a lot of work for the Bulls to do.
2. What I find really interesting despite Bitcoin prices making a nice recovery from 6k and then trading sideways more or less the RSI (relative strength index) has been on the decline. This to me is showing bearish divergence taking place and the marketplace losing momentum. In a bull environment BTC is easily able to run past 70 for a period of time, which is considered overbought zones. The RSI is telling me the price action is weak and momentum is shifting to the Bears.
3. This is a complex eco-system right now which is coming to grasp with a horrifc crash down to 6k, a lot of unknowns around regulation and actual use cases for these new technologies.
4. The market place is dependant on constant positive NEWS to feed its price appreciation. It's been lacking to say the least.
Conclusion:
I still stand behind no trading and let the market decide which way it wants to go. If you look at the Daily time frame we are still trading inside a descending channel. BTC has to make a run past 10k and hold it for a period of time before we start to see a glimpse of a trend reversal.
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it's different"
-Sir John Templeton
BTC has been trading sideways with no clear direction. Let's examine what the charts are telling us.
The bulls have defended my support zones (1,2) after breaking out of my ascending line. However, it is hitting two minor resistance ceilings above that I have noted as (A,B).
Most analyst agree that the true test for BTC will be the major resistance levels around $9,050 and $9,900.
If BTC can break beyond the minor resistance levels of (A,B) we could easily see BTC make a run for 9,000 and possibly 10,000 in the near term.
Here are my concerns: Volume and RSI tell a different story.
1. Volumes peaked as lots of buyers came in at 6k. You can see the descending blue line in the chart. Why? I think the SMART MONEY is waiting on the sidelines to see if Bitcoin can make a run past the major support zones. There's still too much risk and the momentum is lagging without any positive news. You see the SMART MONEY doesn't care if we buy BTC at 6k or 10k or 15k. We need to see a positive trend reversal forming and there's still a lot of work for the Bulls to do.
2. What I find really interesting despite Bitcoin prices making a nice recovery from 6k and then trading sideways more or less the RSI (relative strength index) has been on the decline. This to me is showing bearish divergence taking place and the marketplace losing momentum. In a bull environment BTC is easily able to run past 70 for a period of time, which is considered overbought zones. The RSI is telling me the price action is weak and momentum is shifting to the Bears.
3. This is a complex eco-system right now which is coming to grasp with a horrifc crash down to 6k, a lot of unknowns around regulation and actual use cases for these new technologies.
4. The market place is dependant on constant positive NEWS to feed its price appreciation. It's been lacking to say the least.
Conclusion:
I still stand behind no trading and let the market decide which way it wants to go. If you look at the Daily time frame we are still trading inside a descending channel. BTC has to make a run past 10k and hold it for a period of time before we start to see a glimpse of a trend reversal.