Could Bitcoin hit 53k before going higher?
Aktualisiert
Currently Bitcoin has stopped at the 60k support but isn't looking all that great. This is the 3rd attempt to break out completely, but each time it has failed miserably. The ATH was right at the R3 weekly and the support was right at the old resistance. Slightly lower we have a key diagonal coming from the 29k bottom + horizontal + weekly P + CME gap at 59k + Volume profile PoC, then the 50 DMA + Monthly P are at 55-56k and finally 53k which is important in my opinion for several reasons.
First of all we have this interesting fractal from the previous large drop from 62k down to 50.5k. Very similar situation and it could repeat. Then we have old support that broke just for a brief period and then quickly reclaimed and led to a decent move up along with the weekly S3 (for now). I also believe it is a great place for a trap right below the 50 DMA + Monthly P to scare people because the 50 DMA hasn't really been broken to make people think the bull might be over. The fact that it held twice so perfectly is not a bullish sign but bearish until we get a shakeout. Finally the last reason is that there is a CME gap right at 54.5k.
Long are super high all across the board, no matter where you look at (Bitfinex, Binance or OKex). Funding is quite high and premiums on futures are dropping but in weird and rapid way which might be a signal that somebody knows something. Now add to the mix that we are 2 days after the Coinbase IPO (not much more money to flow into crypto from there) and that Alts have rallied about 70-100% since March 25th without a large correction. We've also had 3.5 months of alt season which usually is enough for the show to be over + Bitcoin is overbought and diverging.
Now having said all that before I see it go to 53k I wouldn't call for a bear market or anything like it. For now I see no major risks in terms of bonds, the USD or stocks, although at some point relatively soon I'd expect a correction in stocks as they are back at ATHs and rallying hard. Now in regards to crypto as a whole, it probably is time for a correction. We've moved up hard and we've seen tons of crazy moves over the last few days. We've seen things rally for almost 2-3 weeks and that's usually enough for a decent pullback. Of course after that I believe we are going higher and that this year we could see the total Market cap get to 10-20T by the end of the year. So a 20-25% pullback in alts and 15% pullback in BTC wouldn't be anything crazy and just a healthy washout before we move higher. In term of a bear market I see nothing that screams bear and although it isn't impossible I can't and don't want to call anything long term bearish at the moment.
By the way I did talk about this correction on BTC briefly on my social media but because it was pretty late for me I had to just resort to those mediums and not Tradingview. Even here I try share as much as possible but sometimes my trading or other stuff get in the way.
https://coinalyze.net/snapshot/3Bgx5--S
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/2/2v9nQBs0.png
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/rEuFLvPI.png
First of all we have this interesting fractal from the previous large drop from 62k down to 50.5k. Very similar situation and it could repeat. Then we have old support that broke just for a brief period and then quickly reclaimed and led to a decent move up along with the weekly S3 (for now). I also believe it is a great place for a trap right below the 50 DMA + Monthly P to scare people because the 50 DMA hasn't really been broken to make people think the bull might be over. The fact that it held twice so perfectly is not a bullish sign but bearish until we get a shakeout. Finally the last reason is that there is a CME gap right at 54.5k.
Long are super high all across the board, no matter where you look at (Bitfinex, Binance or OKex). Funding is quite high and premiums on futures are dropping but in weird and rapid way which might be a signal that somebody knows something. Now add to the mix that we are 2 days after the Coinbase IPO (not much more money to flow into crypto from there) and that Alts have rallied about 70-100% since March 25th without a large correction. We've also had 3.5 months of alt season which usually is enough for the show to be over + Bitcoin is overbought and diverging.
Now having said all that before I see it go to 53k I wouldn't call for a bear market or anything like it. For now I see no major risks in terms of bonds, the USD or stocks, although at some point relatively soon I'd expect a correction in stocks as they are back at ATHs and rallying hard. Now in regards to crypto as a whole, it probably is time for a correction. We've moved up hard and we've seen tons of crazy moves over the last few days. We've seen things rally for almost 2-3 weeks and that's usually enough for a decent pullback. Of course after that I believe we are going higher and that this year we could see the total Market cap get to 10-20T by the end of the year. So a 20-25% pullback in alts and 15% pullback in BTC wouldn't be anything crazy and just a healthy washout before we move higher. In term of a bear market I see nothing that screams bear and although it isn't impossible I can't and don't want to call anything long term bearish at the moment.
By the way I did talk about this correction on BTC briefly on my social media but because it was pretty late for me I had to just resort to those mediums and not Tradingview. Even here I try share as much as possible but sometimes my trading or other stuff get in the way.
https://coinalyze.net/snapshot/3Bgx5--S
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/2/2v9nQBs0.png
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/rEuFLvPI.png
Anmerkung
The dip was really strong and we got lower. On twitter and telegram I explained after the first dip why I had expected to see the price go to 47k which could be the potential bottom. Currently I feel Bitcoin has bottomed and will be going much higher relatively soon although alts still seem like a better bet.
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