Context is the same

Morning folks,

Market has not shown a lot of activity last week and mostly we keep our scenario valid. Price barely has tested previous ATH and it is correct to say that BTC mostly has touched the level rather than created the new ATH. It means that market's mission around ATH is not finished yet. IT has to either grab stops, wash them out and drop or show the real upside breakout.

Keeping all this stuff in mind, as well as overall positive sentiment and expectations stimulus from the Fed - we suggest that last upward leg is yet to happen. Price behavior on 4H chart is not typical for bearish market. Reversal usually happens fast, while here BTC is forming triangle near the top. It looks like preparation for upside breakout. If it takes the shape of butterfly it mostly will be enough to complete our weekly XOP around 21K area.

Thus, currently we do not see any reasons to go short by far. It would be better to wait either for XOP completion or real bearish signs with downside triangle breakout etc. Bullish positions could be opened with the stops below butterfly lows. This setup will be broken if BTC drops out of the triangle.