BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Log) (Guesstimate of what could unfold)

Looking at the 1 week chart, it isn't too pretty. You can see where BTC broke above the old channel and where the price targets are if it retraces back to those trend lines. The MACD has crossed and we had more downward movement today. I've sketched two scenarios of what I'd guess will happen assuming we don't just go to 0 which I'd find highly highly unlikely, but anything is possible. This isn't meant to scare people into selling, since I've personally already bought back in a large portion from my short. This is meant more just to show that 5k etc BTC isn't really all that far-fetched of an idea. These trend lines just happen to intersect at fib levels etc which is a bit ominous. =\

Personally I don't see it going lower than that, and think we should get a decent bounce by around 7800 range and hopefully that'll be it....but it really could go either way. I see 8k BTC as BUY BUY BUY, and even more so at 5k range.

Keep in mind the scribbles aren't meant to be exact on timing or anything, just mainly was getting at where the two different scenarios start will probably be a pivotal point one way or the other if it plays out like this.

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I was curious about the 60 day trend cycles people have done charts of before showing BTC has generally had cycles where you have an average of 60 days of alternating bear/bull cycles. So, interestingly enough on the 1 day chart the 60 days of bear market would end right at the 61% retracement level, right where the circled trend lines intersect. Pretty interesting stuff eh?

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Side note, the update with the daily chart above, def ignore the scribbles since they moved when I swapped back to the 1D view. Meant to turn them off......but honestly even the way they are shown on that pic really isn't that far fetched of a scenario lol.

Kommentar:

Now here is a probably very overly optimistic scenario if the 60 day cycle continues and it stays between these trend lines...I don't see it, but man that'd be insane. I was just hoping we'd see 50k by the end of 2018. 60 day cycle puts it around the 261% fib level right around that trend line.

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The above chart with the crazy 50k in around 2.5 months scenario was on weekly btw.

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Well it was $7500 BTC when I woke up this AM. Now lets see the bounce and find out if it is just another bull trap or the end of an ABC correction before the next pump. Pay attention to the trend lines and watch it close when near them.