BTCUSD 4H chart (5/13/2019)
Good morning traders. If you haven't been in Discord with us then you missed my Bitcoin updates on Friday and Saturday as well as my live stream where I updated my thoughts for members and price followed along as I outlined that it would. It appears that we are now completing reaccumulation with eyes a few thousand dollars higher. In terms of the parabola price has been printing, this recent reaccumulation range should be Base 4. We can see RSI continuing to adhere to the support line created at Base 3 and showing likely bearish divergence upcoming as price nears the swing high but RSI is much lower than its own recent high. Stoch RSI is also just leaving oversold with a lot of room to run. I believe Base 3 was the large April reaccumulation period and is where we usually see price double from pretty quickly. As such, we should expect price to target the ~$9400 level. Because it would be a blow-off top completing the 3rd wave, we could see price end within a few hundred dollars in either direction of that number (the green box is the target area). My expectation is to see price drop back down to the 6000s to complete wave 4 before seeing wave 5 target the large 2018 descending wedge target around $14500-$15000. Be sure to watch this morning's video update if you'd like to see the analog to 2015.
People will mistakenly think that price needs to drop back down to $4000 (or lower): 1) because they are scared they missed the best entries (they did), and 2) they think the blow-off top is going to have price retracing most of this move up. I do not believe this is the case. The one thing that most of cryptotwitter and tradingview personalities don't seem to understand is accumulation and distribution. The former took place over the course of the past year. This means that retail traders don't have the means to curtail professional buying, which has been the driver of price throughout 2019 so far. Retail remains on the sidelines in disbelief as price continues its upward trek. The failure of price to continue down below $5000 should be the nail in the coffin that creates greater FOMO leading to the wave 5 target right in monthly supply.
That being said, the expected wave 3 blow-off top and subsequent wave 4 consolidation should create a large reaccumulation pattern. Again, most of CT and TV have no understanding of accumulation/distribution which means they have an even worse understanding of reaccumulation. Yes, the reaccumulation can be divided into a hyperbolic distribution phase at the top of wave 3 and an accumulation phase at wave 4, but make no mistake it is a complete reaccumulation phase on the larger TF. Why is this important? Because it puts cyclical price action into perspective. If you understand the larger TF, then there is little-to-know reason to believe that price will return to $4000 or lower.
Could I be wrong? Sure I could, but to trade devil's advocate against a strong bullish trend is most likely going to lose you money. Traders argued that they should trade the bearish trend during the correction but can't seem to get out of their own way now, and refuse to trade the bullish trend we've witnessed for five straight months now. Whether you believe I'm right or wrong, if you are trading without strict adherence to intelligent risk management you are going to lose everything you make and then some.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
People will mistakenly think that price needs to drop back down to $4000 (or lower): 1) because they are scared they missed the best entries (they did), and 2) they think the blow-off top is going to have price retracing most of this move up. I do not believe this is the case. The one thing that most of cryptotwitter and tradingview personalities don't seem to understand is accumulation and distribution. The former took place over the course of the past year. This means that retail traders don't have the means to curtail professional buying, which has been the driver of price throughout 2019 so far. Retail remains on the sidelines in disbelief as price continues its upward trek. The failure of price to continue down below $5000 should be the nail in the coffin that creates greater FOMO leading to the wave 5 target right in monthly supply.
That being said, the expected wave 3 blow-off top and subsequent wave 4 consolidation should create a large reaccumulation pattern. Again, most of CT and TV have no understanding of accumulation/distribution which means they have an even worse understanding of reaccumulation. Yes, the reaccumulation can be divided into a hyperbolic distribution phase at the top of wave 3 and an accumulation phase at wave 4, but make no mistake it is a complete reaccumulation phase on the larger TF. Why is this important? Because it puts cyclical price action into perspective. If you understand the larger TF, then there is little-to-know reason to believe that price will return to $4000 or lower.
Could I be wrong? Sure I could, but to trade devil's advocate against a strong bullish trend is most likely going to lose you money. Traders argued that they should trade the bearish trend during the correction but can't seem to get out of their own way now, and refuse to trade the bullish trend we've witnessed for five straight months now. Whether you believe I'm right or wrong, if you are trading without strict adherence to intelligent risk management you are going to lose everything you make and then some.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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