viparmenia
Long

BTCUSD 12000 till end of the Year and 15000 till Februar 2018

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1,5 Month 100% up Cycles in BTCUSD             with 1 Week 30% downs
I see after 6 months people refer to this chart and call it magic.
Antworten
Good looking trend assuming status quo - with no negative news on the horizon, just upside (CME, CBOE, etc) - I see this model playing out more aggressively - the only downside at this stage would be a black swan event which is highly unlikely given BTC market penetration and runtime
+2 Antworten
viparmenia NYCCryptoTrader
@NYCCryptoTrader, Bitcoin is not real money so the black swan events or negative news only push the price
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@viparmenia, I don't follow - Bitcoin has the properties of a currency - it's held as a store of value and traded no different than 'real money' - a black swan event is some unforeseen event that could have a fundamental/existential impact to, in this case, Bitcoin - that would surely lower confidence and affect the price negatively.

Can you lay out a scenario where negative news pushes the price? A scenario like Trump banning bitcoin I agree would be 'negative' but would create an incredible demand for bitcoin
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viparmenia NYCCryptoTrader
@NYCCryptoTrader, Whole year 2017 was full of news about China banning BTC.
First they banned the frequent trades in February - price drop a bit and then doubles.
Last news was banning crypto exchanges at all in china and you see, where we are.

Unfortunately I do not believe that bitcoin can act as a currency, because of chaos in sense of decisions about how to solve problems when bitcoin faces problems like scalability unconfirmed transaction to much energy spending for mining and more problems will appear as more people will use it.

The last example was the Segwit2x that finally being cancelled and now the mempool is full again like it was in May this year, resulting to high fees almost same price 30$ per transaction need to be paid to get it happen otherwise it ends in infinit nirvana https://blockchain.info/de/charts/mempool-size?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all
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