This bar chart grid is part one of a two-part idea, looking at possible scenarios for the month of February.
I have a way of looking ahead and visualizing multiple scenarios, by creating a fake candle on a monthly chart (see the linked idea below), then thinking about what price action would have to do to create the fake monthly candle. I focus mainly on trendlines on lower timeframe bar charts, to justify the potential highs and lows on the monthly candles. I have to make a complete guess as to where price will close at the end of the month.
The most likely scenario, detailed on the daily chart in the upper right, would be for price to chop around lower for a couple of weeks, with possibly another quick flush to test or slightly break the lower line of the descending wedge. I’ve seen a lot of folks posting charts/ideas with 7500-8500 as their cover/buy area. That would fit nicely into the lower apex of the wedge. If buyers do step in en masse at that point, BTC could see a decent rally to the 13,000 - 14,000 area. The time factor for this scenario appears to be fairly realistic, as it has more than 20 days to resolve before time & price invalidates the desc wedge pattern. It could very likely stay within the wedge until March. I would add to my current position on a breakout of the upper trendline. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the Desc Wedge Scenario, on the middle monthly candlestick chart.
The symmetrical triangle scenario, detailed on the 240 chart on the bottom, has the least amount of time going for it. It would be invalidated six days from now. Price could also easily re-test the most recent lows and change this to a descending triangle pattern, which would make the third scenario, framed in the next paragraph, more likely to happen. The upper price discovery line (very faint, at top of orange arrow) says this move wouldn’t get much past 12,600. I might put on a short-term swing trade on a breakout of the triangle. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the Sym Tri Scenario, on the right-hand monthly candlestick chart.
Worst case scenario for bulls, but best for the shorts, would be a break of the lower support trendlines, shown on the weekly chart in the upper left. If buyers don’t step up when price tests 7500, then the next area for price discovery would be around November's low of 5,500. I don’t know if I would be a buyer in this scenario; it’s not my style to pick bottoms or catch a falling knife. I would have to wait for other signals on smaller timeframes. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the No Buyers Scenario, on the left-hand chart.
This is all speculation on future price movements, and anything can happen.
I have a way of looking ahead and visualizing multiple scenarios, by creating a fake candle on a monthly chart (see the linked idea below), then thinking about what price action would have to do to create the fake monthly candle. I focus mainly on trendlines on lower timeframe bar charts, to justify the potential highs and lows on the monthly candles. I have to make a complete guess as to where price will close at the end of the month.
The most likely scenario, detailed on the daily chart in the upper right, would be for price to chop around lower for a couple of weeks, with possibly another quick flush to test or slightly break the lower line of the descending wedge. I’ve seen a lot of folks posting charts/ideas with 7500-8500 as their cover/buy area. That would fit nicely into the lower apex of the wedge. If buyers do step in en masse at that point, BTC could see a decent rally to the 13,000 - 14,000 area. The time factor for this scenario appears to be fairly realistic, as it has more than 20 days to resolve before time & price invalidates the desc wedge pattern. It could very likely stay within the wedge until March. I would add to my current position on a breakout of the upper trendline. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the Desc Wedge Scenario, on the middle monthly candlestick chart.
The symmetrical triangle scenario, detailed on the 240 chart on the bottom, has the least amount of time going for it. It would be invalidated six days from now. Price could also easily re-test the most recent lows and change this to a descending triangle pattern, which would make the third scenario, framed in the next paragraph, more likely to happen. The upper price discovery line (very faint, at top of orange arrow) says this move wouldn’t get much past 12,600. I might put on a short-term swing trade on a breakout of the triangle. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the Sym Tri Scenario, on the right-hand monthly candlestick chart.
Worst case scenario for bulls, but best for the shorts, would be a break of the lower support trendlines, shown on the weekly chart in the upper left. If buyers don’t step up when price tests 7500, then the next area for price discovery would be around November's low of 5,500. I don’t know if I would be a buyer in this scenario; it’s not my style to pick bottoms or catch a falling knife. I would have to wait for other signals on smaller timeframes. If you go to the accompanying idea below, this is the No Buyers Scenario, on the left-hand chart.
This is all speculation on future price movements, and anything can happen.
Kommentar:
The symmetrical triangle on the 240 chart is busted and the 9017.41 pivot low is going to be a magnet for an epic stop run. How many folks do you think have their stops just below that low?