BITCOIN: BTCUSD
Remember the man in the white hat who chased Butch and Sundance all over the outlaw trail?
Chasing Bitcoin is the same - damn difficult to catch...but it has to be done.
So, very unusually, Bitcoin is actually negative right now: bears are seeing that the recent, super-steep uptrend/line of
support has been broken now...it put up a fight at the first listed support at 7150-7135 for 3 hours or so last night and
kept bouncing off the spot where fixed support and the trend line met - but it failed to hold up and started to slide away -
then it began to hammer out what looks like another continuation pattern (notice that when something is 'hot' it
will usually make a small, flat or downward sloping consolidation pattern, often within a pair of parallels: if it's
really hot it will only make two tests of the lower supporting parallel, spread out over a few hours, before shifting gear
again from negative to positive...as shown on the chart.)
The buy point arrives either on the second test (a few hours later, not minutes) of the lower parallel with tight stop just
underneath as at that point we aren't going to know if it will bounce where we expect it to, so this is riskier but carries
higher rewards. Or alternatively a second. less risky way of entering the trade is to, once the pattern is recognised and
identified, wait for it to break above the upper parallel again and buy on the next minor pull-back towards the same
parallel. That works well when there is no old identifiable trend line to contend with and therefore less of a trail for traders to
follow and trade off. Which brings us to now...
This pattern is much the same - two hits on the lower parallel (spread out over 11 hours in this case), then come a series of
green candles and all looks fine...
But in this case there's this old, now dead uptrend line to contend with and it's this old trail that's creating the push and
pull/negative short term condition we are seeing in Bitcoin right now. That same line is now acting as resistance, stopping the rally
from gaining any traction at this point and it's still vulnerable to bears whilst unable to break back above that old rising
supoort line, ... but it cannot be hit hard on the downside because the next support, listed here at 7077 is so close at
hand and in fact is just about to be tested as this is written - so we have a narrowing battle zone between bulls and bears
selling off from the underside of that old rising support line at 7244-7260.
What will be giving cheer to bulls right now is that fact that it's holding up so well around 1735 and down to the next
listed fixed support at 7077-7065... no one really wants to sell... it's coming up to a speccy buy here when it retests 7077
or alternatively consider putting a buy order in around the 7015 level (with a stop about 50 points lower, though) and
there is quite a good chance it will get struck by look of chart.
Those pin bars at 7005 and 7000 off the lower parallel look
good for the bulls, showing quite agressive buying power down at this level, so if we do see another sell off below 7077 -
7065 near term support range that 7010-6095 range is the next area of interst for those looking to get long (with stops).
Alternatively wait for 7270 to be beaten and look to buy on the next minor pull-back from there.
So far the notional fixed support lines drawn on the chart yesterday have proved quite helpful, so remain unchanged for now.
Can't rest now until Bitcoin has been tagged, bagged and in the freezer. More as this move develops, football permitting, obviously.
And if 6950 happens to give way whilst the football is on, we need to stand back for a while - it should then come back quite a lot
further still.
But right now, Bitcoin is coming up to a buy point again on retests of the upper parallel. So long as it uses that parallel
for support this monster cannot run away to the downside...
Those already long might consider increasing po
Remember the man in the white hat who chased Butch and Sundance all over the outlaw trail?
Chasing Bitcoin is the same - damn difficult to catch...but it has to be done.
So, very unusually, Bitcoin is actually negative right now: bears are seeing that the recent, super-steep uptrend/line of
support has been broken now...it put up a fight at the first listed support at 7150-7135 for 3 hours or so last night and
kept bouncing off the spot where fixed support and the trend line met - but it failed to hold up and started to slide away -
then it began to hammer out what looks like another continuation pattern (notice that when something is 'hot' it
will usually make a small, flat or downward sloping consolidation pattern, often within a pair of parallels: if it's
really hot it will only make two tests of the lower supporting parallel, spread out over a few hours, before shifting gear
again from negative to positive...as shown on the chart.)
The buy point arrives either on the second test (a few hours later, not minutes) of the lower parallel with tight stop just
underneath as at that point we aren't going to know if it will bounce where we expect it to, so this is riskier but carries
higher rewards. Or alternatively a second. less risky way of entering the trade is to, once the pattern is recognised and
identified, wait for it to break above the upper parallel again and buy on the next minor pull-back towards the same
parallel. That works well when there is no old identifiable trend line to contend with and therefore less of a trail for traders to
follow and trade off. Which brings us to now...
This pattern is much the same - two hits on the lower parallel (spread out over 11 hours in this case), then come a series of
green candles and all looks fine...
But in this case there's this old, now dead uptrend line to contend with and it's this old trail that's creating the push and
pull/negative short term condition we are seeing in Bitcoin right now. That same line is now acting as resistance, stopping the rally
from gaining any traction at this point and it's still vulnerable to bears whilst unable to break back above that old rising
supoort line, ... but it cannot be hit hard on the downside because the next support, listed here at 7077 is so close at
hand and in fact is just about to be tested as this is written - so we have a narrowing battle zone between bulls and bears
selling off from the underside of that old rising support line at 7244-7260.
What will be giving cheer to bulls right now is that fact that it's holding up so well around 1735 and down to the next
listed fixed support at 7077-7065... no one really wants to sell... it's coming up to a speccy buy here when it retests 7077
or alternatively consider putting a buy order in around the 7015 level (with a stop about 50 points lower, though) and
there is quite a good chance it will get struck by look of chart.
Those pin bars at 7005 and 7000 off the lower parallel look
good for the bulls, showing quite agressive buying power down at this level, so if we do see another sell off below 7077 -
7065 near term support range that 7010-6095 range is the next area of interst for those looking to get long (with stops).
Alternatively wait for 7270 to be beaten and look to buy on the next minor pull-back from there.
So far the notional fixed support lines drawn on the chart yesterday have proved quite helpful, so remain unchanged for now.
Can't rest now until Bitcoin has been tagged, bagged and in the freezer. More as this move develops, football permitting, obviously.
And if 6950 happens to give way whilst the football is on, we need to stand back for a while - it should then come back quite a lot
further still.
But right now, Bitcoin is coming up to a buy point again on retests of the upper parallel. So long as it uses that parallel
for support this monster cannot run away to the downside...
Those already long might consider increasing po