In my revised Bitcoin update for BTCUSD, I outline two potential trajectories. In the short term, I am bearish, while my intermediate short-term outlook is bullish, anticipating a spike. However, my longer-term view remains bearish. Among the two projected paths, I assign a slightly higher probability (60%) to the Green Line trajectory occurring. This probability would be even higher if the VIX were not at a key support level.
The elevated probability for the Green Line trajectory is influenced by the suppressed VIX, given its derivation from the S&P 500 Index. Although Bitcoin is a "risk-on" asset, it often proxies the S&P 500.
In the short term, we should consider the potential shift from the stock market to crypto. Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of market uncertainty, partly due to distrust in the US dollar and media hype. Additionally, the current push in big tech and AI, along with crypto’s involvement in these ecosystems, might support Bitcoin more than the S&P 500. However, this remains speculative and highly assumptive.
The elevated probability for the Green Line trajectory is influenced by the suppressed VIX, given its derivation from the S&P 500 Index. Although Bitcoin is a "risk-on" asset, it often proxies the S&P 500.
In the short term, we should consider the potential shift from the stock market to crypto. Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of market uncertainty, partly due to distrust in the US dollar and media hype. Additionally, the current push in big tech and AI, along with crypto’s involvement in these ecosystems, might support Bitcoin more than the S&P 500. However, this remains speculative and highly assumptive.
