is looking on lower timeframes. The trend is clearly as
price is trading above the Kumo Cloud and if we see recent
high taken out at 16480, a higher low is in place at 12050. Strong resistance
sits at 16000-16300. If price fails to breach the Kijun Sen at 15413 price may
pull back to retest the just broken Monthly at 14300 or below that the
stronghold at 14000.
Here follows an extensive analyse of scenarios based on chart harmonics
I found. It clutters the chart but may be useful for Bulls who are trying to
find targets to take profit.
A conservative Bull will wait for price to take out B and enter long on a
retest, at least this is a classical approach. Regular dip buyers are likely
already long, as well as long term holders.
Note the white of which the first leg, is the CD leg in a
previously posted with target at 18000 sharp. A nice
harmony is revealed if the retracement reaches 16000, and we see
an identical leg up which perfectly aligns with the D level of the green
pattern (The ), AND both these levels are in confluence with
the new Yearly R1 at 22100.
So to put it all together, if price breaches the B level at 16480 chances are
good that the 22000 level is the next target.
Of course, the target of the at 18000 could be slightly extended to
incorporate a test of the Monthly R1 at 19200, which would ideally see a bigger
retracement, if the 16000 level will be the strong support (red line). This
would be logical because traders would become nervous about price being
unable to take out the X (all time high) which would lead to a sharper sell off.
So what is the darker picture for Bulls?
If price fails to breach the B level at approximately 16500 and comes
right back down to close below the Monthly at 14300 or
even enters the Cloud, it would signal weakness. Especially if price close
below the 14000 level it could accelerate a sell off
and result in a taking out of the critical C level at 12050 which would erase
both the and the , and likely lead to a test of the
yet untraded Yearly at 11440 and below that the Monthly S1
at 8950. traders at this timeframe are likely nervous about having
an untraded Yearly below price action and they would likely
take a more conservative approach, entering long at this time. Personally
I am long since 12200 and the triggering of the , and plan to take
off a third at 18000 and another third at 22000, if all goes as planned (which
they not always do). I will not sell though, even if price takes out the 12000
or even reaches the 9000 level since a third of my BTC are long term investment
and the odds are too low that the coin will turn into a dead star.