BTC possible bull trap ahead & systemic risk to the market
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Bitcoin has enjoyed its status and name recognition but hasn't received much-needed updates to resolve problems with its fundamentals. It's my belief that sooner rather than later it'll be displaced by one or hopefully several other better-qualified alternatives.
If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD. The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k.
Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.
Check out my site: jlteng.com
If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD. The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k.
Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.
Check out my site: jlteng.com
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It appears that the coast isn't clear as some have argued, but I think it probably will go up a little more before POSSIBLE further drops.Also check tether issuance. Without the T, BC goes down
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Tomorrow will be crucial:If BTC goes down a little more, we'll have a death cross of weekly EMA crossing down the monthly EMA + H&S will be confirmed.
If this happens, BTC will go to at least 9k if not lower. The bubble will be burst.
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It almost appears that BTC will go to 15k at this point. Uncertainty will be with the next step.Anmerkung
Found this on reddit: imgtc.com/i/6vNVjc9.jpgNot sure how to process it in terms of price movement. Personally, I was aware of blockstream but not mastercard & the fed having stakes in btc.
My personal thought on bitcoin has been that it could very well crash after 28/12, but I have been wrong many times on this specific issue.
One thing to look at would be the wealth concentration: bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/
If this drops, we know the big boys have bated
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It's blowing off --- even before the fake fork.Yes, top wallets are now poorer.
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Just noticed that it did follow this old chart quite well. I do think a bounce back to ~14.2k as shown here is likely today or tomorrow. Sell opportunity, perhaps.
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