Bitcoin: Long Term Breakout Projection

16. Nov. 2020

In this post, I'll be shedding light on a speculative theory involving Bitcoin's breakout pattern for the long term.
This analysis is based on time periods, the wyckoffian theory of accumulation and supply/demand, as well as breakout strategies.

Analysis
- To begin with, we can see that Bitcoin, over the long run, has undergone phases of accumulations
- Based on the longest chart history available, it bottomed out in Nov. 2011, and broke out in Feb. 2013
- It took 2 years after a local bottom, for a bullish rally to start
- We saw the first high form in Dec. 2013, after a 10 month long rally
- The bottom of the trend formed in Jan. 2015. A two year long downtrend.
- Since then, the trend started to reverse again, until prices broke out of the accumulation phase in Feb. 2017
- The parabolic bullish rally lasted another 10 months, topping out in Dec. 2017
- After a full year of a clear bearish trend, prices bottomed out in Dec. 2018
- Just as the second consolidation phase, we are seeing signs of a trend reversal, leading to a potential breakout around Feb. 2021
- Based on major trend lines, we could expect another parabolic rally lasting 10 months up to Dec. 2021

Summary
In conclusion, understanding supply and demand based on the wyckoff theory for the overall picture is important. Bitcoin as an asset goes through phases of consolidations and breakouts, forming new highs over the years. Spotting such patterns are important as they allow traders to capitalize on ephemeral bullish trends.

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