Trader-Elisa
Long

BTC update - short term outlook

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Bullish divergence on RSI and MACD is currently playing out on the 1 day chart, however this is slightly preceded by a bearish negative reversal (hidden divergence). Daily buy volumes have been increasing and the MACD is now showing a strong cross. We are still awaiting a recross of the EMAs (7,77) however, and the price is sitting at the bottom of the Bollinger bands needing more volume and momentum to take it through the median line .

It is coming up to the CME futures expiry (26th) and so far not we are seeing the same impact as for the CBOE             expiry - based on hourly timings in the lead up to expiry.

As I have said in previous analysis, I believe the volumes being shorted do not warrant a dramatic correction, and additionally it would be harder for the price of these futures to be manipulated given the different pricing methodology used by CME compared to the CBOE             . Having said that, the volumes shorted in the CBOE             also did not warrant the previous level of correction, so there may be market manipulation elsewhere under the guise of futures . Furthermore, it is entirely possible that general FUD causes a recurrence in the next 18 hours.

Barring any futures-related or other drama, the next day or two should see us hitting previous support/resistance points at around 11900 and 12400 12900, key previous fib levels shown in the pitchfork (38.2%, 50%and 61.8%).
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