BTC update - short term outlook

Bullish divergence on RSI and MACD is currently playing out on the 1 day chart, however this is slightly preceded by a bearish negative reversal (hidden divergence). Daily buy volumes have been increasing and the MACD is now showing a strong cross. We are still awaiting a recross of the EMAs (7,77) however, and the price is sitting at the bottom of the Bollinger bands needing more volume and momentum to take it through the median line.

It is coming up to the CME futures expiry (26th) and so far not we are seeing the same impact as for the CBOE expiry - based on hourly timings in the lead up to expiry.

As I have said in previous analysis, I believe the volumes being shorted do not warrant a dramatic correction, and additionally it would be harder for the price of these futures to be manipulated given the different pricing methodology used by CME compared to the CBOE. Having said that, the volumes shorted in the CBOE also did not warrant the previous level of correction, so there may be market manipulation elsewhere under the guise of futures. Furthermore, it is entirely possible that general FUD causes a recurrence in the next 18 hours.

Barring any futures-related or other drama, the next day or two should see us hitting previous support/resistance points at around 11900 and 12400 12900, key previous fib levels shown in the pitchfork (38.2%, 50%and 61.8%).