If not miracle happens, this is what BTC will do
So, it seems I over-estimated BTC.
It doesn't pump as expected, until not yet, we still have half a day until the weekly candle close.
If no miracle happens, and the weekly closes like this, this would be certainly a very bad sign, and we would continue to dump down to the SQRT support, at around 2k.
The question then is, what will happen in 2019.
Two scenarios are possible:
The healthy correction is the blue one, where 2000 marks the low, and afterwards we'll have a flat period and resume the bullmarket in late 2019 to mid 2020.
The red scenario is the not so nice one. Here, the final low will be in the area of the previous ATH. This then, would lead to a very long bearmarket imho, which would take
longer to turn into a bullmarket again. If this happens, we can forget new ATHs before 2022, and it could even take until 2023. That sucks, and as many others, I hope this would not
happen. However, one should keep an open mind and also look at things that one doesn't like.
I'm unsure now, I expected a strong bounce, but it didn't happen,
so now things aren't looking so great. Let's hope for the blue scenario.
It doesn't pump as expected, until not yet, we still have half a day until the weekly candle close.
If no miracle happens, and the weekly closes like this, this would be certainly a very bad sign, and we would continue to dump down to the SQRT support, at around 2k.
The question then is, what will happen in 2019.
Two scenarios are possible:
The healthy correction is the blue one, where 2000 marks the low, and afterwards we'll have a flat period and resume the bullmarket in late 2019 to mid 2020.
The red scenario is the not so nice one. Here, the final low will be in the area of the previous ATH. This then, would lead to a very long bearmarket imho, which would take
longer to turn into a bullmarket again. If this happens, we can forget new ATHs before 2022, and it could even take until 2023. That sucks, and as many others, I hope this would not
happen. However, one should keep an open mind and also look at things that one doesn't like.
I'm unsure now, I expected a strong bounce, but it didn't happen,
so now things aren't looking so great. Let's hope for the blue scenario.
Kommentar:
Not too much going on, we hit 3200, however, no strong bounce in sight. For an intermediate reversal, we need a strong bounce. Therefore, I assume that this will go further down.
Well, time to update the idea. As suspected, the weekly and Stoch RSI picture pointed towards the next weekly candle being a big, red one. Now, this is a weird slow bleed down, rather than an extreme spike.
What does that mean?
Well, if we don't bounce soon, we'll continue to drag down to the SQRT function which acts as support, the bright blue line at around 2100. This would not be good at all. This would then have gone down much further than anyone would have guessed. Obviously, it then cannot magically go back to bullmarket. This would really open up the possibility for the red scenario with a long stretched out bearmarket till 2020, with retest of 1200.
If it goes below the SQRT support line, it would be a disaster. I mean a weekly close below that line. It maybe could go as low as 1800, but it should immediately bounce. However, going so low in this dump cycle would mean, that we'd go lower in the next one.