BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex für BITFINEX:BCHUSD von FibMarketWatch

$BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.

This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.

For Further Analysis see related idea.

Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).

1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)

3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2

4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)

The Beginning:

Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent

The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.

The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.

The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.

A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.

The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.

The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.

Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.

The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.

Cheers!

-AB

Anmerkung

Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)
Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)

Anmerkung

S5 Target (Yellow)

Anmerkung

Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...

Or Consolidate further into the Apex

Anmerkung

High Probablity of Breaking out...

Elliot Rule...

Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...

Anmerkung

TRADE:

BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475

Anmerkung

Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.

Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m

Anmerkung

Wave A Terminal

Anmerkung

Wave B is Always 3 sub-waves

Anmerkung

Here comes the trade...

Anmerkung

Always be on alert for Extensions...

Anmerkung

Correction was not a flat...

Internals of Waves are extremely important...

ZigZag Correction...

Do NOT Sell!

Anmerkung

Time to break the Leading Triangle?

Anmerkung

5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?

Anmerkung

New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 Terminal

Anmerkung

Check this out...

Next Move looks nuts...

Anmerkung

Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.

Anmerkung

Above: Extending S1

Anmerkung

Should beginning the move momentarily...

Anmerkung

Price-Action Update.

Anmerkung

Excuse above.

Below:

Leading Diagonal

Anmerkung

Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonal

Anmerkung

Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonal

Anmerkung

Here is a better view.

Larger Leading Diagonal = Green

Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue

Anmerkung

Time for Take-off?

Anmerkung

Price-Action update:

Anmerkung

3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.

Anmerkung

Excuse Above...

Anmerkung

Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and B

Anmerkung

Marks the end of Cycle Wave Correction

Anmerkung

Or aka Wave C

Anmerkung

STOP

Anmerkung

Price-Action Update:

Anmerkung

We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave.

A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).

Anmerkung

Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)

Anmerkung

Correction:
2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree

Anmerkung

Lower Degree - Teal
Higher Degree - Green

Anmerkung

Higher Degree:
Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800

Anmerkung

Key Levels:

Anmerkung

Above: Nearing the Apex.

Anmerkung

Breakout Imminent!

Anmerkung

Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAG

Anmerkung

Selling should be over or getting close...

Anmerkung

Live updates to make sure I am right about this move

Anmerkung

Target Hit.

Anmerkung

A few more ticks to go...

Anmerkung

$436 is next target

Anmerkung

Gap opening...

Anmerkung

Price-Action looks good.

Analysis Stands.

Stay the course.

Anmerkung

Wave 5 is looking to extend

Anmerkung

Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends
Scenario 2 : Correction

STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)

Anmerkung

Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis.

Cheers!

-AB

Anmerkung

Correction: ZigZag instead of Flat

Anmerkung

Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...

Anmerkung

Failed Wave

Stop Triggered

Anmerkung

Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.

Anmerkung

Excuse typing errors please on my phone.

Anmerkung

Here is the image with the stops.

Anmerkung

Analysis still stands.

Stay the course.

Anmerkung

Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.

Anmerkung

Above: Higher Degree Wave

Anmerkung

Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levels

Anmerkung

Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382

Anmerkung

Price-Action is showing a leading Diagonal

Anmerkung

The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws.

Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave

Anmerkung

Breakout should be imminent...

Anmerkung

Lower Degree Wave 5 Extended
Higher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend

Anmerkung

Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completion

Anmerkung

I will be updating throughout the day...

Anmerkung

Wave 3 Target hit.

Anmerkung

Wave 3 Extedning

Anmerkung

Wave 3 Extension imminent.

Anmerkung

It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...

Anmerkung

Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!

Anmerkung

Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.

Anmerkung

Extension Failed.

Anmerkung

Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.

Anmerkung

Still expecting an Extended 5th Wave

Anmerkung

1HR View:

Anmerkung

6HR View:

Anmerkung

Price-Action looking very strong...

Is it time for the Big Move?

Anmerkung

Wave 5 is extending...

Anmerkung

Added another spiral for Timing purposes.

Anmerkung

Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5

Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin

Anmerkung

Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.

Anmerkung

Fib Spirals played out exactly...

Anmerkung

The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.

Anmerkung

Next Target- Yellow box

Anmerkung

Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!

Anmerkung

Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginning

Anmerkung

Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)

Anmerkung

Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!

Anmerkung

Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618

Anmerkung

Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.

Anmerkung

40,000 Feet View (Always Important)

Anmerkung

Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!

Anmerkung

The BIG move imminent...

Anmerkung

Review:

1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING

Anmerkung

Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonal

Anmerkung

Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.

Anmerkung

Micro-Wave Sequence complete.

Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.

Anmerkung

Waves are like Russian Nesting Dolls

Anmerkung

Trade opportunity!

If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1

Anmerkung

Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.

Anmerkung

Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).

Anmerkung

-1HR View
-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence

Anmerkung

This is where you would sell...

Watch out for the extensions...

Anmerkung

Price-Action Broke 1.236 Level

Watch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...

Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.

Are the shorts starting to cover?

Anmerkung

Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.

Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...

This is how I read Fib Spirals...

Anmerkung

Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...

Anmerkung

$562 level is still pointing out to me...

Anmerkung

Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.

Anmerkung

Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445

Anmerkung

Trade Worked Perfect...

Now, Let's go higher!

Anmerkung

Above: S1 & S2

Anmerkung

Fib Extension of S1 & S2

-Added Stop

Anmerkung

Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...

Anmerkung

ZigZag Correction should be ending now...

Anmerkung

Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1

Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)

Anmerkung

STOP Added

Anmerkung

Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave Sequence

Anmerkung

1HR View + Next Leg Higher Timeline

Anmerkung

Daily View:

Anmerkung

Here is Wave 2 Bottom.

Now we are going higher...

Anmerkung

Above: Sub-Wave Sequence

Anmerkung

Above:

Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence

Anmerkung

5th Wave was Normal

Anmerkung

Correction should be ending momentarily...

Anmerkung

Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)

Anmerkung

Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...

These levels will likely not be seen again...

Buy what you can here.

Anmerkung

Will update shortly.

Anmerkung

Wave 1 IS extending!

Anmerkung

Price-Action update

Added Spiral

Forming Leading Diagonal

Anmerkung

Wave 1 extended then pulled back...

Stop Triggered.

Opportunity to pick up more BCH.

Analysis still stands.

Anmerkung

Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat Correction

Anmerkung

Wave 2 Correction Complete

Anmerkung

6HR View
Added Fib Extension (1&2)

Anmerkung

Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.

Anmerkung

Hypothetical Price-Action

Anmerkung

Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2

Anmerkung

Price-Action Update:

Anmerkung

Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-Waves

Anmerkung

Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)

Anmerkung

Breakout imminent

Anmerkung

Next Move should be large...

Wave 3 beginning now.

Anmerkung

Expect Wave 5 to Extend.

Anmerkung

Updated STOP

Anmerkung

1HR View

Anmerkung

Above: Fib Time of Wave 1

Anmerkung

It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...

Anmerkung

Excuse above...

Anmerkung

Hypothetical Price-Action

Anmerkung

Looks like this is it...

Back to $500's

Anmerkung

Price Action update:

Anmerkung

10 mins or so left...

Anmerkung

Price Action Update:

Anmerkung

In the 'Gap'

Let's see which way it goes...

Anmerkung

Looks like we are going to have a correction sequence

Anmerkung

Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correction

Anmerkung

Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.

Anmerkung

Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & B

Anmerkung

Hypothetical Action

Anmerkung

Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLAT

Anmerkung

Action Update:

Anmerkung

#Slowwalker

Anmerkung

Action update:

Anmerkung

Micro-Wave

Wave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree 3 extension

Anmerkung

Correction should ending soon

Anmerkung

Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618

Anmerkung

Action update:

Anmerkung

This wave (3) should extend

Anmerkung

Fib extension 1 & 2

Anmerkung

Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442

Anmerkung

Price Action update:

Anmerkung

Notice all The Fib Spiral Intesections

Anmerkung

Wave is tends to be a sloppy formation

Anmerkung

Action update:

Anmerkung

Above:

Yellow Box: Failed Wave

Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation

*please excuse typing while on my phone.

Stay the course!

Anmerkung

Above:

Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2

Anmerkung

Above: Hypothetical Action

Anmerkung

We have to be getting close...

Anmerkung

Note the Red Spiral Intersection

Anmerkung

Getting really close to breaking out...

Anmerkung

Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginning

Anmerkung

S1 & S3 we’re near equality

Expect 5th Wave to extend

Anmerkung

Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3

Anmerkung

We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...

The next move high should begin at any moment...

Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..

Anmerkung

Correction close to ending

Anmerkung

Price should not go below S1(0)

Anmerkung

Take emotion out and trust the analysis

Anmerkung

Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action.

Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.

Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!

Anmerkung

S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation.

Anmerkung

You could place a STOP near S1(0)

Anmerkung

My stop is at $424.89

Anmerkung

Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...

The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.

Anmerkung

Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...

Anmerkung

Here ya go...

Anmerkung

Analysis is about to be proven correct...

Anmerkung

Ye o little faith...

Anmerkung

Last chance to load up on BCH!

Anmerkung

If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.

Nothing more and nothing less...

I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.

Anmerkung

Looking good...

Watch 1.618 Level

Anmerkung

$476.90

Anmerkung

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2

Anmerkung

Review

Anmerkung

Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary Wave

Anmerkung

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2

Anmerkung

See the Leading Diagonal?

Anmerkung

Beautiful Chart Above...

Fibonacci and Wave Theory

Anmerkung

Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key.

Anmerkung

Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours.

Anmerkung

Add Fib Spirals to Sub-Waves

Added Scenarios

Anmerkung

Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.

Anmerkung

Sub-Wave Sequence Complete

Anmerkung

Sub-Wave decided to further retrace.

No change in analysis.

Anmerkung

Pretty good time estimate.

Anmerkung

Ignore stop above.

Anmerkung

Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

Anmerkung

Who dumped 5,000 BCH?

Stench of Manipulation...

Anmerkung

Higher Degreee has not completely failed...

Anmerkung

IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...

Anmerkung

Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.

Anmerkung

Original Analysis

Anmerkung

If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...

Anmerkung

Just double checked the Wave counts.

Anmerkung

Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).

Anmerkung

Found the Error...

I messed up the ABC Correction...

Corrected below:

Anmerkung

ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)

Anmerkung

Analysis Stands

Anmerkung

I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.

Anmerkung

Above: Log Format

Anmerkung

It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.

Anmerkung

BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...

Anmerkung

Corrected the Wave Count...

Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...

Anmerkung

For those interested in my Fib Theory...

Here is a test of it...

Anmerkung

Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...

Anmerkung

BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launch

Anmerkung

Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...

Anmerkung

Spiral Targets

Maybe Tradable

Anmerkung

Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning)

Anmerkung

2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...

Likely level for Terminal Wave 3

Anmerkung

Pink Sequence - Hypothetical Action

Anmerkung

Bigger picture...

Anmerkung

Do or die time!

Anmerkung

Will this analysis fail or be right...

Just tell me!

Anmerkung

Fib Spiral Theory Test

Anmerkung

Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.

Anmerkung

Better view of wave sequence

Anmerkung

Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438

Anmerkung

Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished.

Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...

Anmerkung

Reminder:

Highest Wave:

Anmerkung

Higher Degree Target:$6500

Anmerkung

Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.

Anmerkung

Heavy hitters on deck

Anmerkung

Wait for it...

Batters on deck...

Anmerkung

Coinbase chart

Anmerkung

Heavy Hitters...

The Rush...

Climax...

Everyone thought it was going lower...

Anmerkung

New idea coming soon...

Anmerkung

Strong MACD crossover

Anmerkung

Breakout imminent...

Anmerkung

Wall Street money incoming...

Anmerkung

Wave 3 was Normal.

Expect extended 5th.

Anmerkung

Added Fib Extension 0-3-4

1.618 Target

Anmerkung

Wave Failed....

Don't Panic...

Anmerkung

This will start a Wave Sequence

Anmerkung

Upside Down ABC Correction

Anmerkung

Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' Sequence

Correction: 3-3-5

Anmerkung

Ahh so close....

Hurry up BCH!

Anmerkung

I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...

It's ALMOST!

Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.

Anmerkung

Excuse me...

Corrected Chart:

Anmerkung

This C Wave will make or break the analysis.

Anmerkung

99.99% Positive my analysis is correct...

Anmerkung

Damn, it feels good to be right...

Anmerkung

New idea will be finished soon...

1 hour or so...

Anmerkung

Anmerkung

New Idea Above!

Anmerkung

Correct Link:

BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex

Verbundene Veröffentlichungen

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

Haftungsausschluss

Verbundene Veröffentlichungen

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

Haftungsausschluss