Lower commodity prices before higher $96 first, $80s next
Everyone's bullish commodities and calling for a supercycle and a breakout here. However, every commodity chart looks like it's in the process of topping or has already topped.
Then if you look at this chart, it just hit resistance again and hasn't been able to break through.
The highest probability scenario to me here is that we reject and fall lower to $96, then rally over summer, and fall lower in the fall/early 2023 to find a bottom in the $80 region.
After that, I can see the case for commodities to rally, but don't think commodities are going to go up here like everyone thinks.
Then if you look at this chart, it just hit resistance again and hasn't been able to break through.
The highest probability scenario to me here is that we reject and fall lower to $96, then rally over summer, and fall lower in the fall/early 2023 to find a bottom in the $80 region.
After that, I can see the case for commodities to rally, but don't think commodities are going to go up here like everyone thinks.