Watchlist 2023-03-22 FED decision $SPY $TQQQ $SQQQ $AMZN $AMD $T
SPY - flat looking into today's rate decision with consensus expecting a 25 bps hike, however still some other forecasters expecting a pause of 0 bps. This means that volatility will be incredible if there is a surprise pause but the FED has not made a rate decision against consensus in the last 12 months. There are a lot of key resistance levels over SPY including the PD high, 200 EMA at 399, and 400 key level. 394 is the next key support.
If 25 bps - unclear what the initial reaction will be - wait for levels to form after the 2:00 announcement and follow the trend on pullbacks' if price action is confirming thesis.
If 0 bps - bullish thesis- get in asap IF price action confirms, hold until price is extended. If there is a fakeout about a key SPY level like 400 and price hold below, consider trimming position of getting out completely.
Bullish Products:
- Bank stocks $TCF $ALLY $KRE- showing the most strength the last trading session and TFC has the most room to the March 14 pivot high have the most RR to the
- Tech - $TQQQ, $AMZN - huge unfilled void above 101 coming from a daily buy setup and showed relative strength PD.
Bearish Products
$SQQQ
$AMD - rejected the 98.75 pivot and then showed relative weakness yesterday to the market and even the other semis $SMH rallied
Reasons to exit - bullish price action is muted, wicking, can't get past and clear levels, wait for a larger pullback for better RR.
For a trend day we'll need to see the $ADD pinned near +\-2000 and $VOLD ratio over +/- 3.
If 25 bps - unclear what the initial reaction will be - wait for levels to form after the 2:00 announcement and follow the trend on pullbacks' if price action is confirming thesis.
If 0 bps - bullish thesis- get in asap IF price action confirms, hold until price is extended. If there is a fakeout about a key SPY level like 400 and price hold below, consider trimming position of getting out completely.
Bullish Products:
- Bank stocks $TCF $ALLY $KRE- showing the most strength the last trading session and TFC has the most room to the March 14 pivot high have the most RR to the
- Tech - $TQQQ, $AMZN - huge unfilled void above 101 coming from a daily buy setup and showed relative strength PD.
Bearish Products
$SQQQ
$AMD - rejected the 98.75 pivot and then showed relative weakness yesterday to the market and even the other semis $SMH rallied
Reasons to exit - bullish price action is muted, wicking, can't get past and clear levels, wait for a larger pullback for better RR.
For a trend day we'll need to see the $ADD pinned near +\-2000 and $VOLD ratio over +/- 3.