i just wanted to share this .....:
i found this old chart of mine (at least a year ago - i think it was after this strong breakout of the dax in dec16) when i was trying different time cycles to get some idea about correction levels...
i had then completely forgotten about this when i found it again just a few days ago--and i was absolutely blown away!
i think the correction in the dax is about to be over - yesterdays breakdown because of strong euro and northcorea worries is about to reverse.
i guess this could be kind of double bottom around 11900--moreover we crisscrossed the 200ma line, a level not touched since more than a year...)
allthough i do not expect any strong moves to the upside before the german...
i have been changing my mind concerning oil over the last days and weeks.
i did expect a rebound from the mid-june lows,
but first i didnt expect the drop to be so deep, and second i didnt expect the following very choppy price action.
both seem to me to be a sign of an intermediate turning point (to the upside from here)
note that the weekly macd is about to...
the really interesting thing about oil is, that the prices seem to be alot more market driven than producer driven (more product than demand i know..)
so prices keep floating around, driven by the markets, hence patterns (if guessed right seem to work pretty fine), so here is my next guess:
oil will go up once more before falling down to the low 40's or worse..
yes long! this sounds completly insane and i think this is quite risky call at the moment.
bears seem to be in full control of this, but todays breakdown could be a nice reversal point. and the fact that almost all comments are bearish might be the best reason to buy...very small position though...
miners and gold made quite massive moves down.
after breaking the assumed trend line from the december lows we must find a different pattern to explain the recent moves.
my best explanation now is that we are about to complete an abc correction(now-august) before the last leg down(aug-dec).
this would also coincide with the seasonality in gold---up from now till...
this was a massiv move down yesterday for the miners, and i guess we come at least to test the trend line, (junior miners already came down..).
at the moment it looks like we could even retest the dec.lows,
on the other hand gold itself looks alot better, so either gold comes down as well, or miners go back up again, probably alot depends on the next rate decisions...
this is becoming interesting now.. i didn't expect oil to go down that fast again- (this could be a sign of real weakness??) i still do expect a bounce of the 50$ area... if this does not hold we could fall back to 45-42 area...
i guess this idea is not very unique, but i think it is quite remarkable how precise ngas is mooving, we will see if this works out, i will enter in a few days, no need to rush, we might have still some room to the bottom..
the mexican peso has been really strong for the last few week's.
especially against the euro, but also against the us-dollar.
i expect a moderate correction for now
to form the right shoulder of a HS reversal formation.
recently i have bee playing around with fib. retracements and time cycles and i am just amazed how often this correlates with price action.
this example is interesting since we are about to see another turning point soon, if this also works out this time (could be friday-us.jobs report??)