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Bitcoin (Kryptowährung)

Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law [Gabremoku]Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law combines two analytical layers into a single BTC-focused overlay. The first layer is a statistical analog forecaster. It scans historical Bitcoin data and searches for the closest matches to the most recent pattern using a weighted multi-feature distance model based on candle structure, volatility, momentum, trend distance, and structural position relative to the Bitcoin power-law range. The second layer is a long-term Bitcoin power-law framework built from three structural curves: Floor, Mid-Stair, and Fair Value. These curves are plotted directly from the power-law formula and are not altered by the forecasting engine. The script is not a simple mashup of two unrelated tools. The power-law layer is used as structural context inside the forecaster itself: it contributes to analog selection, regime comparison, optional forecast anchoring, and optional probability adjustment. The goal is to make historical pattern matching more aware of where price is located inside Bitcoin’s broader long-term structure. How the forecast works: The script compares the latest pattern against historical BTC windows. It keeps the best analogs according to the selected similarity method. These analogs are separated into Bull, Central, and Bear groups using the final return at the selected forecast horizon. For each step in the projection, each scenario path is built from the weighted average of its own analog group, so the paths remain internally coherent instead of mixing bullish and bearish trajectories. An optional structural bias can softly pull projected prices toward the power-law range over time. This effect fades in progressively across the forecast horizon, so near-term projections are not abruptly distorted. Scenario probabilities are derived from the same percentile thresholds used to build the Bull, Central, and Bear paths. This keeps the displayed percentages aligned with the projected paths shown on the chart. The script is designed for daily Bitcoin charts and works best when enough historical data is available. It is a probabilistic context tool, not a prediction guarantee, and it should be used together with risk management and independent market analysis. Suggested usage: Use the power-law curves to identify long-term structural position. Use the forecast paths to estimate how similar historical BTC conditions evolved. Compare current price location, structural regime, and scenario probabilities before forming a directional bias. Treat the output as a contextual model, not as a standalone trading signal.
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von Gabremoku
Crypto: Macro Heatmap [invincible3]Crypto Macro Heatmap is an automatic market-regime dashboard designed to summarize crypto macro conditions using liquidity, leverage, breadth, and risk-participation metrics. The indicator converts multiple market data sources into normalized 0–100 scores and displays them in a structured heatmap table. It is built to help traders quickly understand whether the broader crypto environment is risk-on, neutral, or risk-off. Main dashboard sections: 1. Liquidity Tracks Global M2, total crypto market cap, USDT dominance, and BTC volume confirmation. Higher liquidity scores generally suggest stronger macro support for crypto markets. 2. Leverage Tracks open interest pressure, funding-risk proxy, liquidation-risk proxy, and OI acceleration. Higher leverage scores mean higher stress or crowding risk. 3. Breadth Tracks TOTAL2, TOTAL3, BTC dominance, ETH dominance, and altcoin participation. This section helps identify whether market strength is broad or concentrated. Key features: * Fully automatic scoring * No manual market-score inputs * Dashboard show/hide checkbox * Light/dark chart theme detection * Composite regime score * Regime meter * Market phase detection * Risk-state classification * Confidence score * Section delta versus 7 days ago * Fixed-width heatmap layout for cleaner visual alignment The composite score combines liquidity support, market breadth, and leverage-adjusted risk into one regime reading. The dashboard is intended for macro context and regime analysis, not direct buy or sell signals. Use this tool as a higher-timeframe market filter together with your own technical analysis, risk management, and trading system. Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not provide financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
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von invincible3
Bitcoin Power Law by Luisoft📈 This indicator implements the quantitative Power Law model for Bitcoin, specifically designed to analyze its long-term growth structure. Unlike traditional models, this perspective demonstrates that Bitcoin's growth is fundamentally exponential. By projecting this behavior onto a logarithmic scale, the curve adopts a linear trajectory (a constant and predictable slope). This shows that the asset's expansion is not decelerating; instead, it maintains a continuous structural growth rate from its genesis block, making it possible to establish clear mathematical zones of accumulation and distribution. The script has been optimized at both the mathematical and design levels to offer a clean interface, an ultra-smooth future projection, and an interactive data dashboard for macroeconomic decision-making.
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von Luisoft
1
CDC Action Zone+TrueMarket Mean (BTC Focus) By Beckte## Overview This indicator is a macro-focused trend following and cyclical value tracking tool, specifically designed for Bitcoin (BTC) long-term investors. It combines the momentum logic of the well-known **CDC Action Zone** with a mathematical simulation of the On-Chain **Realized Price** model. The main purpose of this script is to identify high-probability, macro-generational accumulation zones while filtering out early or false bottom signals during aggressive downtrends. --- ## Key Components ### 1. CDC Action Zone (Trend & Momentum) Based on the classic EMA 12 and EMA 26 crossover logic, this component colors the candlesticks to reflect the market's current momentum: - 🟢 **Bright Green:** Strong Bullish Momentum (Hold / Trend is up) - 🔵 **Blue:** Early Bullish Sign / Potential Reversal (Watch closely or start accumulation) - 🔴 **Bright Red:** Strong Bearish Momentum (Stay in cash / Wait) - 🟠 **Orange:** Early Bearish Sign / Technical Rebound in Bear Market ### 2. Realized Price Proxy (The Cyclical Floor) In on-chain analysis, the **Realized Price** represents the average cost basis of all aggregate Bitcoin supply moving on-network, without omitting lost or dormant coins. Since native on-chain data requires external API subscriptions on TradingView, this script utilizes a specialized long-term statistical proxy (**730-day SMA with custom logarithmic offsets**) to simulate this ultimate cyclical floor. Historically, major bear market bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) have strictly formed near or slightly below this baseline. --- ## How it Works & Entry Strategy (The Anti-Doi Mechanism) To avoid catching falling knives during a capitulation event, this script enforces a strict double-confirmation rule: 1. **Value Zone Check:** The current market price must correct down to within **10% of the Realized Price Proxy** (the light blue line). This ensures you are buying Bitcoin at an extreme discount relative to historical network value. 2. **Momentum Trigger:** Once inside the Value Zone, the script waits for the **CDC Action Zone to flip from Red/Orange to Blue or Green**. When both conditions are met, a **"REALIZED BUY"** label will plot beneath the candlestick, signaling a safe, low-risk entry spot with a highly compressed downside. --- ## Disclaimer & Credits - **Credits:** The trend-following logic is inspired by the legendary "CDC Action Zone" concept popularized by Piriya Sambandaraksa. The valuation floor is based on the Realized Price on-chain metric conceptualized by the crypto-asset research community. - **Disclaimer:** This indicator is designed for high-timeframe spot accumulation (recommended: 1D or 4H charts). It is not a financial advisory tool or a guarantee of future profits. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always practice proper risk management.
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von beckte7
Bitcoin Compressing Power Law ChannelBitcoin Compressing Power Law Channel Most Bitcoin power-law channels draw bands of a fixed width around a long-term trendline. This one is different: the channel width is not constant. It starts wide and compresses exponentially as Bitcoin matures, modeling the idea that long-term volatility around the trend tends to shrink over time. That decaying width is the core idea of this indicator. Why a compressing channel A standard power-law channel assumes the spread between its upper and lower bounds stays the same across Bitcoin's entire history. In practice, an asset's relative volatility tends to fall as it grows larger and more liquid. This indicator captures that by letting the channel narrow over time toward a configurable floor, so the bounds reflect a maturing market rather than a permanently fixed range. How it works The model assumes log(price) scales linearly with log(days since the genesis block), producing a fair-value trendline: logFair = intercept + slope * log10(days). A lower bound is offset below that line, and the upper bound is placed above the lower bound at a distance set by the channel width. The width itself is the original part: width = minWidth + startWidth * exp(-decaySpeed * yearsSinceGenesis). Early in Bitcoin's history the exponential term is large and the channel is wide. As years pass, that term shrinks toward zero and the width converges to a minimum floor (minWidth). The result is a channel whose envelope tightens over time instead of staying fixed. What it plots Three lines in price space (upper, middle, lower) with a shaded fill between the upper and lower bounds. Optionally, a 200 SMA of the current timeframe and a 200 SMA from the weekly timeframe, each toggleable. The weekly SMA is requested from a higher timeframe with lookahead disabled, so it does not repaint using future data. A normalized "Decay Channel Oscillator" is exposed in the Data Window, showing where the current close sits within the channel on a 0 to 1 scale (0 = lower bound, 1 = upper bound). Inputs Every model parameter is adjustable: the genesis date, the power-law intercept and slope, the lower offset, the initial and minimum channel widths, and the decay speed that controls how fast the channel compresses. Colors for each line, the fill, and both SMAs are configurable. How to use it Apply it to a Bitcoin chart on a longer timeframe such as Daily or Weekly, where a power-law model is most meaningful. The middle line is the model's central estimate; the upper and lower lines describe the expected long-term range, narrowing as time goes on. The Data Window oscillator lets you read how stretched price is within the channel numerically. Parameters and calibration The default intercept and slope are starting values that approximate Bitcoin's historical power-law fit. They are not fixed truths. You should re-evaluate them and adjust them, along with the offset, widths, and decay speed, to suit your own analysis and the data range you are studying. Different calibrations will move the channel and change how aggressively it compresses. Limitations and cautions This is a model, not a prediction. The power-law relationship is an empirical observation that may break down at any time, and the decay parameters are assumptions, not facts. The compressing width is a hypothesis about volatility maturing over time; it may not hold. This indicator is built for Bitcoin and is not intended for other assets. Nothing here forecasts future prices, and the past behavior of the channel does not guarantee anything about how price will behave going forward. The code is open-source under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. You are welcome to study it and build on it.
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von AppTradingRobots
1
Crypto Realised (on-chain) PriceRealized Price represents the average price at which coins have changed hands on their respective network. It is fundamentally different from a standard moving average on exchange price because a moving average simply calculates a mathematical average of daily closing prices over an arbitrary time window (like 50 or 200 days), completely ignoring whether any significant number of coins actually traded at those levels. In contrast, Realized Price tracks the actual on-chain cost basis of the entire network. It looks at the history of the blockchain and values every single coin at the exact price it was last moved between wallets. This turns it into a true, volume-weighted floor that shows what investors actually paid for their assets over time, rather than just a smoothed line of recent exchange noise. It only works for cryptos for which Tradingview has data. Free to use and modify with proper attribution. If you find this indicator helpful, sharing it on X or social media to support the account is highly appreciated!
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von goudarzi1986
inan al sat pro v1.0Bu indikatör inan dağ tarafından hazırlanmıştır ve ücretsiz kullanabilirsiniz telefon numaram whatsaaptan yada telegramdan soru sorabilirsiniz mutlaka dönerim trend yönünü, destek/direnç bölgelerini, olası giriş noktalarını, riskli bölgeleri göstermeye çalışıyor. 1) Yeşil Çizgi (Hareketli Ortalama / Trend Çizgisi) Bu çizgi kısa vadeli trendi gösteriyor. Fiyat yeşil çizginin üstündeyse: kısa vadede bullish güç artar long işlemler daha güvenli olur Altındaysa: bearish baskı vardır short daha mantıklı olabilir Şu an: fiyat tekrar yeşil çizginin üstüne çıkmaya çalışıyor. bu pozitif bir sinyal. 2) Turuncu / Kırmızı Kalın Çizgi Bu büyük trend desteği gibi çalışıyor. Bunu: “ana savunma hattı” gibi düşünebilirsin. Fiyat bunun üstünde kaldıkça: market tamamen çökmedi demektir. Altına sert kırarsa: satış baskısı artabilir. 3) Kırmızı Kutular Bunlar: SELL / RESISTANCE bölgeleri Yani: fiyat oralarda zorlanabilir, satış yiyebilir. Şunu yaparsın: kırmızı kutunun içine girince dikkatli olursun, long kovalamazsın, breakout beklenir. 4) Yeşil Kutular Bunlar: BUY / SUPPORT bölgeleri Yani: alıcıların geldiği alanlar. En mantıklı long girişleri genelde: yeşil kutu yakınında, destekten tepki alınca olur. 5) Mavi Noktalar Bunlar: dip dönüş sinyali Yani: satış zayıflıyor olabilir, tepki yükselişi gelebilir. Tek başına yeterli değil ama: destekle birleşirse güçlü olur. 6) Turuncu Nokta Bu: tepe / satış baskısı uyarısı gibi çalışıyor. Genelde: yükseliş yoruluyor olabilir demektir. ŞU AN GRAFİKTE NE GÖRÜYORUM? Şu an: dipten tepki alınmış, fiyat toparlanıyor, küçük bullish yapı oluşuyor. Ama: hâlâ üstte kırmızı direnç bölgesi var. Yani: tam güçlü breakout henüz yok. NEREDE LONG AÇARDIM? Daha güvenli giriş: yeşil kutu üstünde tutunursa ve kırmızı kutuyu kırarsa long düşünürdüm. Yani mantık: destekte tutun direnç kır breakout al NEREDE LONG AÇMAZDIM? Şuralarda dikkat: uzun yeşil mumdan sonra kırmızı kutunun tam altında RSI aşırı şişmişken Çünkü: fake breakout olabilir. STOP NEREYE KOYULUR? En mantıklı yer: yeşil kutunun biraz altı Çünkü: destek kırılırsa senaryo bozulmuş olur. Profesyoneller: “işlem fikri bozulduğu yere” stop koyar. TP (Kâr Alma) Neresi? İlk hedef: bir sonraki kırmızı kutu Çünkü: market orada satış yiyebilir. Basit Kullanım Mantığı Long için: ✅ yeşil kutu ✅ trend üstü ✅ breakout ✅ hacim Short için: ✅ kırmızı kutu reddi ✅ trend altı ✅ destek kırılımı Bu indikatör inan dağ tarafından hazırlanmıştır ve ücretsiz kullanabilirsiniz telefon numaram whatsaaptan yada telegramdan soru sorabilirsiniz mutlaka dönerim trend yönünü, destek/direnç bölgelerini, olası giriş noktalarını, riskli bölgeleri göstermeye çalışıyor. 1) Yeşil Çizgi (Hareketli Ortalama / Trend Çizgisi) Bu çizgi kısa vadeli trendi gösteriyor. Fiyat yeşil çizginin üstündeyse: kısa vadede bullish güç artar long işlemler daha güvenli olur Altındaysa: bearish baskı vardır short daha mantıklı olabilir Şu an: fiyat tekrar yeşil çizginin üstüne çıkmaya çalışıyor. bu pozitif bir sinyal. 2) Turuncu / Kırmızı Kalın Çizgi Bu büyük trend desteği gibi çalışıyor. Bunu: “ana savunma hattı” gibi düşünebilirsin. Fiyat bunun üstünde kaldıkça: market tamamen çökmedi demektir. Altına sert kırarsa: satış baskısı artabilir. 3) Kırmızı Kutular Bunlar: SELL / RESISTANCE bölgeleri Yani: fiyat oralarda zorlanabilir, satış yiyebilir. Şunu yaparsın: kırmızı kutunun içine girince dikkatli olursun, long kovalamazsın, breakout beklenir. 4) Yeşil Kutular Bunlar: BUY / SUPPORT bölgeleri Yani: alıcıların geldiği alanlar. En mantıklı long girişleri genelde: yeşil kutu yakınında, destekten tepki alınca olur. 5) Mavi Noktalar Bunlar: dip dönüş sinyali Yani: satış zayıflıyor olabilir, tepki yükselişi gelebilir. Tek başına yeterli değil ama: destekle birleşirse güçlü olur. 6) Turuncu Nokta Bu: tepe / satış baskısı uyarısı gibi çalışıyor. Genelde: yükseliş yoruluyor olabilir demektir. ŞU AN GRAFİKTE NE GÖRÜYORUM? Şu an: dipten tepki alınmış, fiyat toparlanıyor, küçük bullish yapı oluşuyor. Ama: hâlâ üstte kırmızı direnç bölgesi var. Yani: tam güçlü breakout henüz yok. NEREDE LONG AÇARDIM? Daha güvenli giriş: yeşil kutu üstünde tutunursa ve kırmızı kutuyu kırarsa long düşünürdüm. Yani mantık: destekte tutun direnç kır breakout al NEREDE LONG AÇMAZDIM? Şuralarda dikkat: uzun yeşil mumdan sonra kırmızı kutunun tam altında RSI aşırı şişmişken Çünkü: fake breakout olabilir. STOP NEREYE KOYULUR? En mantıklı yer: yeşil kutunun biraz altı Çünkü: destek kırılırsa senaryo bozulmuş olur. Profesyoneller: “işlem fikri bozulduğu yere” stop koyar. TP (Kâr Alma) Neresi? İlk hedef: bir sonraki kırmızı kutu Çünkü: market orada satış yiyebilir. Basit Kullanım Mantığı Long için: ✅ yeşil kutu ✅ trend üstü ✅ breakout ✅ hacim Short için: ✅ kırmızı kutu reddi ✅ trend altı ✅ destek kırılımı
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von su_inan07
Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M)Description The Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M) is a long-term macro analysis tool designed to identify generational buying and selling opportunities for Bitcoin. By applying logarithmic and linear regression models to the Logarithmic MACD (LMACD), this indicator normalizes price momentum relative to historical market cycle extremes. Unlike standard MACD, the logarithmic version used here accounts for Bitcoin's exponential growth over time, allowing for a consistent comparison of momentum across different cycles. IMPORTANT: Timeframe Compatibility Note: This indicator is strictly designed for Weekly (W) and Monthly (M) timeframes. The regression lines won't show on other timeframes. The regression lines (Log and Linear fits) were calculated using data points from these high-level timeframes because they contain less "noise" and are far more reliable for predicting global cyclical tops and bottoms. It is highly recommended to wait for the candle close on the respective timeframe to confirm any signal, as mid-candle fluctuations can significantly alter the Risk Metric value. How to Use It The metric provides a "Risk" score between 0 and 1, visualizing where Bitcoin sits within its historical growth channel. Sell Zone (Red): When the LMACD line enters the red zone, it indicates that Bitcoin is overbought and potentially nearing a cyclical peak. Buy Zone (Green): When the LMACD drops into the green zone, it suggests the asset is oversold and approaching a cyclical bottom. Confluence: While these zones have historically marked major reversals, this indicator should not be used in isolation. Always seek confluence with other technical or fundamental indicators. Customizable Settings Line Fits: You can choose between "Log Fit" and "Linear Fit" for both Top and Bottom lines to see which model best aligns with your current analysis. View Mode: Switch between Fit Lines (seeing the MACD inside the channel) or Normalized (viewing the risk as a 0-1 oscillator). Risk Levels: Adjust the thresholds for the Buy and Sell zones to fit your risk tolerance. Price Overlay: Toggle the candle coloring on the main chart to see risk levels directly on the price action. VIsualization Tip If the price overlay makes the chart look too cluttered, you can hide the Bitcoin price bars in the main chart settings to focus purely on the colored risk overlay. Alternatively, you can disable the "Plot on Main Pane" option in the indicator settings if you only want to see the metric in its own separate pane below. Limitations Asset Focus: This indicator is specifically calibrated for Bitcoin. While you can apply it to other charts, the indicator pane will always display Bitcoin's MACD risk, whereas the price overlay will color the candles of the currently selected instrument. Fixed Parameters: The LMACD settings (12, 26, Close) are hardcoded. This is intentional, as the regression fitting was performed specifically using these values; changing them would make the historical bands irrelevant. Hardcoded Coefficients: The regression lines are based on historical tops and bottoms up to 2023. Future market cycles may require new approximations if Bitcoin's volatility profile shifts significantly. Regression Specifics: The Linear Fit model treats the early 2011 peaks/bottoms as outliers. On the Monthly timeframe, the bottom line is available only as a linear fit due to the limited number of historical macro data points. The upper linear boundary is guaranteed to be broken by future price action, but it can serve as a "conservative" macro target in the meantime. No Guarantees: Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no certainty that the metric will reach the boundaries in every cycle or remain within them indefinitely.
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von ChartNChill
Crypto Dominance Rotation Map [AGPro Series]Crypto Dominance Rotation Map 🧠 Core Idea Is crypto capital rotating toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, or defensive stablecoin exposure? 📌 Overview / What it does Crypto Dominance Rotation Map is a crypto market regime tool built to read capital rotation through Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, broad altcoin participation, and stablecoin defensive pressure. The script produces a four-lane rotation map, a 0-100 Risk Participation Score, curated regime labels, right-side lane tags, alert conditions, and an AG Pro panel that summarizes the active crypto capital-flow state. It does not predict price direction, automate trades, or claim that dominance rotation will always lead to a specific outcome. It is designed as a structured market context and visualization tool. 🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy This script was built to fill the gap between single-symbol price indicators and broader crypto market context. Many crypto traders watch BTC dominance, ETH dominance, altcoin market capitalization, and stablecoin dominance separately. This script brings those references into one readable rotation map so the trader can understand the current capital-flow environment faster. The mindset is context-first: identify where attention and capital may be concentrating before interpreting individual chart setups. ⚡ Why This Script Is Different Most tools focus on the active chart symbol or on a basket of crypto assets. This script does NOT try to call buys or sells on one coin. Instead, it maps dominance rotation across Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and stablecoin defense so the trader can read the broader crypto regime behind the chart. ⚙️ Methodology 1. Dominance Mapping The script reads Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, altcoin market-cap participation, and stablecoin dominance. 2. Rotation Scoring Each reference is converted into a normalized 0-100 lane score using configurable momentum and smoothing. 3. Regime Classification The model classifies the active state as BTC Lead, ETH Lead, Alt Risk-On, Defensive, Rotation Watch, or Neutral. 4. Visual Output The script plots four rotation lanes, a Risk Participation Score, event labels, right-side tags, and a compact panel. 🗺️ How to Read the Chart BTC Lane shows whether Bitcoin dominance is gaining leadership. ETH Lane shows whether Ethereum dominance is improving versus the broader crypto market. Altcoin Lane shows whether broad non-Bitcoin participation is improving. Stable Lane shows whether stablecoin dominance is rising, which may reflect defensive positioning. The Risk Participation Score summarizes whether crypto rotation is constructive, defensive, or undecided. 🚦 Signals & States • BTC LEAD → Bitcoin dominance is the active leadership lane. • ETH LEAD → Ethereum dominance is leading rotation. • ALT RISK-ON → altcoin participation is constructive and broad risk appetite is stronger. • DEFENSIVE → stablecoin dominance pressure is elevated. • ROTATION WATCH → no clean leader yet, but participation is improving. • NEUTRAL → no strong capital-flow leader is confirmed. 🔔 Alerts Logic Alerts trigger when the active rotation state changes into a major regime. Available alert states: • BTC Dominance Leadership • ETH Dominance Leadership • Altcoin Risk-On Rotation • Defensive Stablecoin Rotation Alerts are attention markers only. They are not trade instructions. 🧩 Confluence Logic Context becomes stronger when the active rotation state aligns with the trader’s chart setup. For example, an altcoin breakout may carry stronger context when the map shows Alt Risk-On. A defensive state may encourage more caution around aggressive long setups. 📊 When to Use • Crypto market regime review • Altcoin season / Bitcoin dominance monitoring • Risk-on and risk-off context checks • Higher-timeframe crypto market preparation • Comparing individual setups with broader market rotation ⚠️ When NOT to Use • Very low-liquidity crypto assets • Symbols that do not respond to broader crypto conditions • Extremely short-term scalping where dominance data is too slow • Periods where dominance symbols are unavailable or delayed 🎛️ Key Inputs • BTC Dominance Symbol → Bitcoin dominance reference. • ETH Dominance Symbol → Ethereum dominance reference. • Altcoin Market Cap Symbol → broad altcoin participation proxy. • Stablecoin Dominance Symbol → defensive crypto positioning proxy. • Rotation Momentum Length → how far back rotation pressure is measured. • Rotation Smoothing → how smooth or reactive the lane map becomes. • Risk-On / Defensive Thresholds → state classification sensitivity. 🖥️ Interface & Visual Design The interface is designed around a four-lane map. Each lane has a clear role: BTC, ETH, ALT, and STABLE. Event labels highlight regime changes without turning the chart into a signal board. The panel summarizes state, risk score, lane values, dominance readings, next context, and timeframe. 🧪 Practical Usage Workflow 1. Read the panel state. 2. Check which lane is leading. 3. Compare the Risk Participation Score with the active chart idea. 4. Use labels and alerts as context markers. 5. Confirm with price structure, volume, and your own risk plan. 🔍 Interpretation Guidelines The script should be interpreted as market context. BTC leadership may indicate capital concentration in Bitcoin. Alt Risk-On may suggest broader participation. Defensive stablecoin rotation may indicate caution. No state is automatically bullish or bearish for every asset. 🚫 What This Script Is NOT This script is not a prediction engine. It is not financial advice. It is not an auto-trading system. It does not provide guaranteed signals. ⚠️ Limitations & Transparency Dominance symbols may update differently from exchange-traded instruments. Timeframe selection can materially change the rotation read. Crypto market conditions can shift quickly during volatility events. The script depends on the availability and quality of the selected reference symbols. 🧠 Market Context Notes Dominance rotation is often more useful as a background regime filter than as a direct entry signal. The strongest use case is comparing an individual crypto setup against the broader flow of capital across Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and defensive stable exposure. 🧾 Use Case Examples When an altcoin setup appears while the map shows Alt Risk-On, the broader participation context may be more supportive. When Bitcoin dominance leads while altcoin participation weakens, altcoin setups may require more selectivity. When stablecoin dominance becomes defensive, aggressive risk-on interpretations should be handled more carefully. 🔐 Non-Promise Statement No script can provide certainty. This tool provides structured context, not guaranteed outcomes. 📉 Risk Disclosure Trading involves risk. Users remain responsible for their own decisions. This script does not provide financial advice. 📚 Educational Note Use this script to study how crypto capital rotation changes across market regimes and how that context interacts with individual chart setups.
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von AGProLabs
Bitcoin RSI Channel (2W, M)Bitcoin RSI Channel (2W, M) The Bitcoin RSI Channel is a macro-analytical tool designed to identify long-term cyclical tops and bottoms of Bitcoin by applying linear regression modeling to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Traditionally, RSI levels like 70 and 30 are used as static markers for overbought and oversold conditions. However, as Bitcoin matures and its volatility dampens, its cyclical RSI peaks and troughs have historically followed a descending trajectory. This script accounts for that "fading" volatility by using mathematically fitted trendlines that track the actual historical extremes of Bitcoin’s momentum. Main Objectives Curve Fitting: Plots mathematically modeled linear regression lines through historical RSI peaks and bottoms, ensuring the channel remains as close as possible to the actual turning points of previous cycles. Normalized View: Provides an optional "Normalized" mode where the dynamic channel is flattened into a 0-1 "Risk Metric" for easier comparison between cycles. Main Chart Visualization: Directly projects overbought and oversold zones onto the price chart via plot coloring, allowing for a seamless confluence of price action and momentum analysis. Cycle Forecasting: Designed as a high-timeframe tool to assist in predicting global market tops and generational buying opportunities. IMPORTANT: Timeframe & Methodology Please note that the regression lines in this script are specifically modeled for the 2-Week (2W) and Monthly (1M) timeframes. These high timeframes were chosen because they significantly reduce market noise, making them superior for identifying global cycle shifts. The coefficients used in the code were derived from an approximation (fitting) of data points from 2011 through 2023. Recommendation: Always wait for the candle to close on the 2W or Monthly timeframe to confirm a signal. Intra-candle fluctuations can be volatile and may provide premature signals before the period is finalized. How to Use Identifying Extremes: When the RSI enters the green "Buy Zone" or the red "Sell Zone," it historically indicates that Bitcoin has reached extreme oversold or overbought levels. These periods suggest the proximity of a potential cyclical bottom or top. Visualizing on Price: These macro shifts are intuitively reflected through the price overlay on the main chart, providing immediate visual feedback on the current stage of the market cycle. Strategic Caution: These zones have not been infallible in the past, and this indicator should not be used in isolation. Always seek confluence with other technical or fundamental analysis before making trading decisions. User Tips Clean View: You can hide the Bitcoin price bars on your main chart (via the Chart Settings) to focus entirely on the risk-based coloring provided by the indicator overlay. Overlay Toggle: If you prefer to keep the indicator purely in its own pane, you can disable the "Plot on Main Pane" option in the script settings. Settings & Parameters View Mode: Switch between "Fit Lines" (standard RSI inside a diagonal channel) and "Normalized" (RSI converted into a Risk Metric). Sell/Buy Zone Levels: Adjustable thresholds (default 0.90 and 0.10) to define your personal risk appetite for overbought and oversold conditions. Plot on Main Pane: Toggle to enable/disable price bar colorization based on the current Risk Metric. Limitations & Disclaimer BTC Specificity: This indicator is purpose-built for Bitcoin. While you can load it on other symbols, the indicator pane will always calculate based on INDEX:BTCUSD data to maintain its cyclical logic. The main chart overlay, however, will color the plot of whatever instrument you are currently viewing. Fixed RSI Optimization: The regression model is strictly optimized using the default RSI settings (14-period, Source: Close). The linear regression lines were fitted specifically to these values; therefore, the ability to modify the RSI length or source has been intentionally omitted from the settings. Changing these parameters would render the channel irrelevant, as the trendlines would no longer align with historical market extremes. Static Modeling: The regression coefficients are "hardcoded" based on historical peaks and troughs up to 2023. As the market evolves, future cycles may require new approximations to account for shifting volatility. No Guarantees: Mathematical models describe the past but do not guarantee the future. There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will reach the upper or lower boundaries in any given cycle, or that it will stay within them. Use this tool as one part of a comprehensive trading strategy.
Indikator
von ChartNChill
BTC Sniper Signals (High Accuracy, No Repaint)High-accuracy BTC signals built to catch real moves — not fakeouts. This system focuses on: trend continuation entries liquidity grabs (smart money moves) momentum confirmation precise entry timing It avoids: late signals choppy conditions overextended entries What makes it different: dynamic scoring system smart filters instead of lagging confirmations built specifically for BTC behavior ✔ No repaint ✔ Fast signals for 5m–1H ✔ Designed for consistency, not noise
Indikator
von bretthenderson883
BTC Valuation Cycle [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated multi-metric Bitcoin valuation framework that synthesizes on-chain analytics including SOPR, MVRV, Price-to-Realized, and Mayer Multiple into a unified 0-100 cycle oscillator with six-tier zone classification for market cycle identification. Utilizing logistic transformation with configurable weighting and z-score normalization, this indicator delivers institutional-grade Bitcoin-specific valuation assessment with pivot-based extreme detection and comprehensive alert system. The system's weighted composite architecture combined with adaptive curve intensity enables precise calibration of cycle sensitivity while maintaining statistical validity across Bitcoin's multi-year market cycles. 🔶 Advanced Multi-Metric Synthesis Engine Implements sophisticated composite calculation combining four distinct Bitcoin valuation metrics with configurable weighting and normalization framework. The system retrieves SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), Price-to-Realized ratio, and Mayer Multiple from on-chain sources, applies z-score normalization to each metric over configurable periods, transforms via logistic function for 0-100 scaling, and generates weighted average creating unified cycle score. // Component Score Calculation SOPR_Centered = SOPR - 1.0 SOPR_Z = z_score(SOPR_Centered, Normalization_Length) SOPR_Score = logistic_100(SOPR_Z, Curve_Intensity) Price_to_Realized_Z = z_score(Price / Realized_Price, Normalization_Length) PR_Score = logistic_100(Price_to_Realized_Z, Curve_Intensity) MVRV_Z = z_score(Market_Cap / Realized_Cap, Normalization_Length) MVRV_Score = logistic_100(MVRV_Z, Curve_Intensity) Mayer_Z = z_score(Mayer_Multiple, Normalization_Length) Mayer_Score = logistic_100(Mayer_Z, Curve_Intensity) // Weighted Composite Cycle = (SOPR_Score × W_SOPR + PR_Score × W_PR + MVRV_Score × W_MVRV + Mayer_Score × W_Mayer) / (W_SOPR + W_PR + W_MVRV + W_Mayer) 🔶 Understanding Bitcoin Valuation Metrics SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the degree of profit for coins moved on-chain, calculated as value sold divided by value paid. Values above 1.0 indicate profitable selling (distribution), below 1.0 indicate loss-taking (capitulation). The system centers SOPR around 1.0 for normalization. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares current market cap to realized cap (aggregate cost basis). High MVRV signals overvaluation as price exceeds average acquisition cost; low MVRV suggests undervaluation. The system offers Ratio mode (raw MVRV), Z-Score mode (statistical deviation), or Blend mode (average of both). Price-to-Realized Ratio directly compares current BTC price to realized price (realized cap divided by circulating supply), providing cleaner valuation signal than MVRV by removing market cap distortions. Mayer Multiple measures price relative to 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 historically mark tops; values near or below 1.0 mark bottoms. The system normalizes this classic technical indicator alongside on-chain metrics. 🔶 Logistic Transformation Framework Features sophisticated logistic function application converting unbounded z-scores into bounded 0-100 range with configurable curve intensity controlling sensitivity. The system applies formula: 100 / (1 + exp(-z × k)) where z is z-score and k is curve intensity (default 0.90), creates S-curve transformation preserving relative relationships while preventing extreme outliers, and enables smooth gradient visualization across entire cycle range. 🔶 Six-Tier Cycle Zone Classification Implements comprehensive market cycle framework dividing 0-100 range into six distinct zones with configurable thresholds representing Bitcoin's characteristic bubble and bust patterns. The system defines Bottom Extreme (default <10, accumulation zone), Cold Zone (10-25, early recovery), Lower Mid (25-40, neutral to bullish), Upper Mid (40-60, bullish), Hot Zone (60-75, late bull market), and Top Extreme (>75, euphoria/distribution) with dynamic color coding. 🔶 Pivot-Based Extreme Detection System Provides intelligent local extreme identification using pivot high/low detection with zone threshold filtering and visual capsule markers. The system detects pivot highs above Hot Zone threshold and pivot lows below Cold Zone threshold using configurable left/right bars, creates horizontal capsule visualizations at exact extreme values with color-coded centers (red for tops, cyan for bottoms), and maintains rolling array limited to maximum capsule count for clean chart presentation. 🔶 MVRV Calculation Mode Selection Offers three distinct MVRV calculation approaches optimizing for different market conditions and analytical preferences. Ratio mode uses raw Market Cap / Realized Cap for direct valuation comparison, Z-Score mode applies statistical normalization emphasizing deviations from historical mean, and Blend mode (default) averages both approaches balancing absolute valuation with statistical context for robust signal generation. 🔶 Configurable Metric Weighting System Features flexible weight allocation enabling traders to emphasize preferred metrics or disable unreliable components during specific market regimes. The system accepts 0.0-N weight values for each metric (default 1.0 all equal), automatically handles missing data by excluding NA metrics from composite, recalculates weighted average dynamically, and enables custom cycle calibration based on trader's confidence in different on-chain signals. 🔶 Confirmed HTF Data Integration Implements rigorous anti-repaint methodology using confirmed higher-timeframe values with offset preventing live bar distortion. The system retrieves all on-chain metrics from daily timeframe with 1-bar offset ensuring only completed daily candle data influences cycle score, applies identical offset to Mayer Multiple calculation, and maintains signal stability across real-time updates preventing false extreme alerts. 🔶 Comprehensive Alert Framework Provides five distinct alert conditions covering critical cycle events and threshold breaches with descriptive messages. The system triggers Top Extreme alert on crossover above top threshold (default 90), Bottom Extreme alert on crossunder below bottom threshold (default 10), Hot Rejection alert when cycle falls from Hot Zone, Cold Reclaim alert when cycle rises from Cold Zone, and Mayer Threshold breach alert for traditional technical confirmation. 🔶 Gradient Zone Visualization Architecture Creates intuitive color-coded area plot with six distinct color zones reflecting current cycle position through visual spectrum from cyan (extreme bottom) through purple/orange to red (extreme top). The system applies dynamic zone coloring to both area fill and cycle value display, implements configurable area transparency (default opaque), and maintains consistent color scheme across oscillator pane, table values, and capsule markers. 🔶 Real-Time Diagnostics System Features comprehensive data availability monitoring with missing metric labels and detailed value table showing all component metrics. The system detects NA values in SOPR, Realized Price, MVRV, or Mayer Multiple, displays warning label listing unavailable metrics, and provides table overlay showing current values for Cycle score, all four components, MVRV-Z, Mayer MA, and threshold with color-coded formatting. 🔶 Performance Optimization Framework Employs efficient calculation methods with null-safe division functions, optimized array management for capsule storage, and conditional plotting minimizing unnecessary rendering. The system includes streamlined weighted average calculation skipping NA metrics, smart capsule cleanup maintaining maximum limit through oldest-first deletion, and minimal recalculation overhead through var declarations and confirmed bar logic. This indicator delivers sophisticated Bitcoin-specific valuation analysis through multi-metric on-chain synthesis unavailable in traditional technical indicators. By combining SOPR (profit/loss behavior), MVRV (cost basis valuation), Price-to-Realized (pure valuation), and Mayer Multiple (technical context) into unified cycle framework with statistical normalization, it provides comprehensive market cycle assessment grounded in blockchain fundamentals. The six-tier zone system maps directly to Bitcoin's characteristic 4-year halving cycles with Bottom Extreme zones historically marking generational buying opportunities and Top Extreme zones marking distribution phases. Perfect for long-term Bitcoin investors seeking data-driven cycle timing, position sizing based on valuation extremes (increase allocation in Cold/Bottom zones, reduce in Hot/Top zones), and objective framework for navigating Bitcoin's volatile multi-year cycles with alerts providing advance warning of major cycle transitions requiring portfolio reassessment.
Indikator
von AlphaExtract
BTC Potential EnergyBTC Potential Energy is a macro-cycle oscillator that tracks how much "dry powder" is sitting in Tether (USDT) relative to its structural baseline — and translates that into a 0–100 potential energy score for Bitcoin. The core idea is simple: when investors are parking abnormal amounts of capital in stablecoins, that capital isn't gone — it's coiled. The higher the stablecoin accumulation above its own historical trend, the greater the potential for a violent rotation back into Bitcoin when sentiment shifts. The indicator displays as a sub-pane oscillator beneath your BTC chart and is designed primarily for use on the Weekly or Daily timeframe , where macro cycle analysis is most meaningful. The Concept: Stablecoins as a Coiled Spring In crypto markets, Tether Dominance (USDT.D) is the percentage of total crypto market cap held in USDT. It rises when investors flee risk — selling Bitcoin and altcoins into stablecoins — and falls when investors deploy that capital back into the market. This creates a physics-like analogy: Compression phase — USDT.D rises as capital moves to safety. Like compressing a spring, potential energy builds. Release phase — USDT.D begins to fall. The spring releases. Capital rotates into BTC, historically preceding or coinciding with the early stages of bull runs. The further above normal USDT.D is, and the more abruptly it starts declining, the more powerful that rotation tends to be. The Problem With Naive USDT.D Analysis The most obvious approach — ranking the raw USDT.D value over history — fails in practice. Why? Because the stablecoin market has grown enormously since 2017. USDT.D in 2021 was structurally higher in absolute percentage terms than in 2018, simply because more stablecoins exist and are used as a base layer across DeFi and centralised exchanges. This secular uptrend means that if you rank raw USDT.D, the indicator reads "high energy" throughout the 2021 bull market — precisely when energy was already deployed and Bitcoin was already running. That is the opposite of useful. The Solution: Detrended Potential Energy BTC Potential Energy solves this by ranking the deviation of USDT.D from its own long-term moving average , not the raw level itself. This strips out the structural growth of the stablecoin market and isolates only the anomalous accumulation — the excess fear-driven or cycle-driven flight to safety that goes beyond what the baseline trend would predict. Step 1 — Establish the Baseline A long Simple Moving Average (default: 100 bars) is computed on USDT.D. On the weekly chart, this represents approximately 2 years — roughly one full Bitcoin market cycle. This MA acts as the "expected" or structural level of stablecoin dominance for any given period. It rises gradually over time as the stablecoin ecosystem matures, automatically adjusting the baseline to the era. Step 2 — Compute the Deviation The deviation is calculated as: Deviation = USDT.D − Baseline MA A positive deviation means USDT.D is elevated above its own trend — investors are accumulating stablecoins beyond what the baseline predicts. This is abnormal stablecoin hoarding, and it represents genuine potential energy. A negative deviation means USDT.D is below trend — capital has already been deployed into risk assets. Energy has been discharged. Step 3 — Percentile Rank the Deviation The current deviation is ranked as a percentile against all deviation values in a rolling lookback window (default: 200 bars). This produces the final Potential Energy score on a 0–100 scale: 100 = The current stablecoin accumulation anomaly is the most extreme it has been in the entire lookback window. Maximum coiled energy. 50 = Deviation is average. Neutral state. 0 = USDT.D is at its most suppressed relative to trend. Capital is fully deployed. Energy is discharged. This approach is robust across all market eras and does not require re-calibration as the stablecoin ecosystem grows. The Four Energy States The indicator identifies one of four states on every bar, displayed in the live info table and used to determine histogram colour. ACCUMULATING (Blue) PE is below 40. USDT.D is near or below its structural baseline. Capital is deployed or neutral. The market is in an active risk-on phase or the bear market has not yet produced meaningful stablecoin accumulation. No elevated potential energy. BUILDING (Amber) PE is between 40 and the Charge Threshold, and is rising. Stablecoin accumulation is growing above the baseline. Investors are beginning to retreat from risk. Potential energy is loading. Worth monitoring but not yet at an actionable level. CHARGED (Orange/Red) PE is above the Charge Threshold (default: 65). USDT.D is historically elevated relative to its own trend. A significant amount of capital is sitting in stablecoins beyond what the baseline predicts. The spring is fully coiled. Bitcoin's potential energy is at its most loaded. RELEASING (Green) PE is above the Charge Threshold AND USDT.D deviation has been declining for N consecutive bars (default: 3). This is the critical state — energy that was compressed is now actively unwinding. Capital is rotating out of stablecoins. Historically, this condition — high stablecoin accumulation followed by a structural reversal — has preceded or coincided with meaningful Bitcoin bull moves. Release Signal Logic The release signal is intentionally conservative. Two conditions must be met simultaneously: 1. Armed: The Potential Energy score must be at or above the Charge Threshold. The spring must actually be compressed before a "release" means anything. A declining USDT.D from a low base is not a release — it's just noise. 2. Declining: USDT.D deviation must have been falling for at least N consecutive bars (configurable). This filters out single-bar blips and requires a structural turn, not just a one-week dip. When both conditions are met, the histogram turns green for the duration of the release phase, and an alert can be triggered on the first bar the signal fires. Visual Guide Histogram colour Deep Blue → Sky Blue: Low energy (PE 0–50), capital deployed Gold: Moderate energy (PE 50–threshold), building phase Amber/Orange: High energy (PE above threshold), fully charged Green: Release phase active — deviation unwinding from a high base Background glow: Subtly tints the pane background to reflect the current energy state — deep blue at low energy, warming to amber and orange as energy builds. Dashed orange line: The Charge Threshold. PE crossing above this line arms the release detector. Dotted grey line: The 50 midpoint. PE above 50 means the deviation is in the upper half of its historical range. Fast MA (blue) / Slow MA (pink): Moving averages of the USDT.D deviation, projected into the 0–100 PE space. When fast crosses above slow, deviation is accelerating upward — energy building faster. When fast crosses below slow from above the threshold, it can precede a release signal. Info Table (top right): Energy Level — Current PE score out of 100 USDT.D — Raw live Tether Dominance reading Baseline — The long MA value, the structural floor Deviation — How many percentage points USDT.D is above or below baseline (+ is elevated, − is deployed) State — Current energy state in plain text Trend MA — The baseline length setting in use Settings Reference Percentile Lookback (default: 200) The rolling window used to rank the current deviation. Longer lookbacks give more historical context but are slower to respond to structural shifts. 200 bars on the weekly is approximately 4 years — long enough to capture a full bull/bear cycle. Trend Baseline MA (default: 100) The most important parameter. This defines the structural floor. On the weekly chart, 100 bars is roughly 2 years — approximately one Bitcoin market cycle. Shorter values (e.g. 52 bars = 1 year) make the baseline more responsive, which can be useful on the daily chart. Longer values (130–150 bars) create a smoother, slower-moving baseline that irons out mid-cycle noise. Signal Smoothing (default: 3) EMA applied to raw USDT.D before any calculations. Reduces candle-to-candle noise in the source data. Higher values produce a cleaner but more lagged signal. Charge Threshold (default: 65) The PE level that must be reached before the release detector is armed. Raising this to 70–80 produces fewer, higher-conviction signals. Lowering it to 55–60 will trigger signals more frequently but with potentially lower reliability. Consecutive Bars Declining (default: 3) The number of consecutive bars that the deviation must be falling before a release is confirmed. Increasing this requires a more sustained reversal and reduces false positives. On the weekly chart, 3 bars is already meaningful — that is 3 weeks of sustained stablecoin outflows. Fast MA / Slow MA Length (defaults: 14 / 50) Moving averages of the deviation plotted in PE space. The crossover of fast above slow while PE is below threshold is worth watching as early warning of building energy. A crossover of fast below slow from above the threshold can precede a release signal. Recommended Usage Timeframe: Weekly or Daily. This is a macro cycle indicator. Do not use it to time intraday entries — it is not designed for that. Combine with price structure: The release signal is most powerful when it aligns with Bitcoin reclaiming a key level, a breakout of a multi-month range, or a bullish divergence on a momentum indicator. The Potential Energy score tells you the setup is primed — price action confirmation tells you it is firing. Watch the Deviation column: The live table shows the raw deviation in percentage points. A deviation of +1.5% means USDT.D is 1.5 percentage points above its 2-year average — that is a meaningful anomaly. Watching this number decline from a peak as the state transitions from CHARGED to RELEASING gives an intuitive real-time read of the rotation. Baseline MA tuning: On the weekly chart, start with the default 100. On the daily chart, consider reducing the Trend Baseline MA to around 52 bars to keep the baseline responsive to faster-moving daily USDT.D data. Alerts Three alert conditions are available: BTC PE — Energy Release: Fires on the first bar the release condition is met. The most actionable alert. USDT.D deviation is actively unwinding from an elevated zone. BTC PE — Fully Charged: Fires when PE crosses above the Charge Threshold from below. Signals that potential energy has entered the high zone. BTC PE — Energy Exiting High Zone: Fires when PE crosses below the Charge Threshold from above. Useful as a heads-up that the setup may be resolving. Notes This indicator uses request.security("CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D") to pull Tether Dominance data sourced from CoinMarketCap's crypto market cap feed via TradingView. This indicator is a research and analysis tool. It does not constitute financial advice. Past correlations between Tether Dominance behaviour and Bitcoin price movements do not guarantee future results. Always combine macro oscillator readings with your own price analysis, risk management framework, and market context.
Indikator
von KevinSvenson_
Bitcoin 1-Year Running ROI Risk MetricOverview The Bitcoin 1-Year Running ROI Risk Metric is a macro-analysis oscillator designed to evaluate the current stage of Bitcoin's market cycle. By analyzing the 1-year rolling Return on Investment (ROI) and applying regression models to historical peaks and troughs, it translates raw market data into a normalized Risk score ranging from 0 to 1. How it Works Historically, due to the law of diminishing returns, Bitcoin's cycle peaks yield a progressively lower ROI each macro cycle. This indicator accounts for this phenomenon by fitting bounding regression curves to historical cycle extremes. The script calculates the natural logarithm of the 1-year ROI. It then normalizes this value between a fitted bottom line (representing historical bear market bottoms) and a fitted top line (representing historical bull market peaks). A Risk value near 0 (or inside the Buy Zone) indicates historical bear market lows, representing minimal macro risk and potential accumulation zones. A Risk value near 1 (or inside the Sell Zone) suggests the market is approaching the historical limits of diminishing returns, indicating maximum macro risk and potential cycle tops. Settings & Customization Users can customize the indicator's behavior and visuals through the settings menu: Top Line: Select the mathematical model used for the upper boundary of the market cycle. Choose between a Log Fit (logarithmic regression, which best captures all historical tops) or a Linear Fit (a more conservative straight line that excludes the 2011 peak). View: Switch between the Normalized mode (displays the Risk metric as a clean 0 to 1 oscillator) and the Fit Lines mode (displays the raw logarithmic ROI values along with the upper, middle, and lower regression bands). Sell / Buy Zone Levels: Adjust the thresholds that define the extreme risk areas. By default, the Sell Zone starts at 0.90 and the Buy Zone at 0.10. These values dictate when the oscillator and the main chart price line change colors. Plot on the Main Pane: A simple toggle to turn the colored price line overlay on your main chart on or off. 💡 Visualization Tip The script projects a colored price line directly onto your main chart (Green for Buy Zone, Red for Sell Zone). To see this colored indicator line clearly without visual clutter, you can hide the standard Bitcoin price candles using the chart's object tree or settings. Conversely, if you prefer a clean main chart and only want to view the risk oscillator in the lower pane, simply uncheck the "Plot on the Main Pane" option in the indicator's settings. Limitations & Disclaimers Please keep the following points in mind when using this tool: Asset Specific: This indicator is strictly designed for Bitcoin. It internally fetches data using the INDEX:BTCUSD ticker. While you can load it on any other asset's chart, the oscillator in the lower pane will always display Bitcoin's data. Timeframe Dependency: Although the indicator will calculate on any timeframe, it is highly recommended to use the Weekly (1W) chart. The regression curve fitting was performed using weekly closes. On other timeframes, the regression boundaries may not align perfectly with the exact global tops and bottoms. Hardcoded Coefficients: The curve fitting was calculated based on Bitcoin's global tops and bottoms up to the year 2023. The resulting mathematical coefficients are hardcoded into the script. Future macro cycles may require a new approximation and an update to these coefficients. Linear Fit Outlier: If you select the "Linear Fit" option for the Top Line in the settings, note that this model intentionally ignores the 2011 global top, treating it as a statistical outlier. This linear boundary is guaranteed to be broken by future price action, but it can serve as a "conservative" macro target in the meantime. No Guarantees: There is no guarantee that Bitcoin's price or ROI will reach the upper or lower boundaries in the future, nor is it guaranteed to remain within them. This indicator is for educational and macro-analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Indikator
von ChartNChill
AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map [AGPro Series]AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map Overview / What it does AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map is an overlay indicator designed to monitor whether a chart symbol is maintaining, weakening, breaking, or repairing its relationship with a benchmark symbol. The default benchmark in this version is Bitcoin via BINANCE:BTCUSDT, which makes the tool especially useful for crypto traders who want to understand whether an altcoin is still moving in line with BTC or beginning to decouple from it. This script does not attempt to answer whether correlation is simply high or low in isolation. Its purpose is more specific: it first checks whether a meaningful benchmark relationship existed, then evaluates whether that relationship is starting to deteriorate, whether the deterioration is becoming a confirmed breakdown, and whether the relationship is later stabilizing again. The result is a regime-style map that helps users read benchmark dependency through distinct states such as coupled, strained, breaking, broken, repairing, and recoupled. This makes the script useful for contextual analysis, benchmark-relative behavior studies, and chart review workflows where users want more than a single rolling-correlation number. Unique Edge The main difference of this script is that it is not a generic correlation line, not a spread-trading engine, and not a simple benchmark overlay. Its focus is the structure of relationship failure. Instead of only plotting short-term correlation, the script combines four layers: 1. prior relationship validation, 2. short-vs-long correlation deterioration, 3. independent price behavior, 4. persistence and repair logic. That combination is what separates a temporary wobble from a more meaningful benchmark breakdown event. This also makes the script distinct from tools that measure correlation pressure or synchronized stress. Correlation Breakdown Map is built around the question: “A relationship existed before, but is it now failing, and if so, how cleanly?” Methodology The script starts by selecting a benchmark series and transforming price data into returns. Users can choose between log returns and percent returns. A short correlation window and a long correlation window are then calculated between the chart symbol and the benchmark. The long window is used to judge whether a stable benchmark relationship has existed, while the short window is used to detect more recent deterioration. The model then evaluates the gap between long and short correlation, along with short-correlation slope behavior. A benchmark relationship is considered more vulnerable when the short window weakens materially relative to the long window and the short-correlation slope also softens. To avoid treating every statistical wobble as a true event, the script also checks for independent price behavior. This layer measures whether the chart symbol is beginning to move in a way that is meaningfully different from the benchmark over a configurable lookback period. Finally, persistence and repair conditions are applied. This allows the script to separate brief instability from a more durable breakdown state, and later identify whether the relationship is beginning to normalize again. Signals & Alerts / States This script is primarily a state-mapping tool rather than a directional buy/sell engine. The core states are: Coupled The chart symbol remains meaningfully aligned with the benchmark relationship structure. Strained The prior relationship still exists, but weakness is starting to appear. Breaking The relationship is under active deterioration and may be transitioning into a more meaningful failure. Broken The chart symbol is behaving as if benchmark linkage has materially weakened. Repairing The breakdown is no longer cleanly expanding, and the relationship may be stabilizing. Recoupled The benchmark relationship has improved enough to suggest that the prior structure is functioning again. The Breakdown Score is used as a compact summary value. It is not intended to be interpreted as a trade signal on its own. It is a regime-strength readout that helps users compare the current condition of the relationship with the underlying state labels. Key Inputs Benchmark Symbol Sets the comparison symbol. The default is BINANCE:BTCUSDT. Benchmark Timeframe Allows users to keep the benchmark on chart timeframe or compare against another timeframe. Source Selects Close, HLC3, or OHLC4 for the benchmark study. Short Correlation Length / Long Correlation Length Define the fast and slow windows used to evaluate current deterioration versus prior relationship structure. Stable Relationship Threshold Controls how strong the historical relationship must be before the script treats later weakness as a true breakdown candidate. Breakdown Threshold / Repair Threshold Control how strict the transition logic is for deterioration and recovery. Min Long/Short Correlation Gap Requires a meaningful difference between longer-term and shorter-term correlation before escalation. Independent Move Threshold Defines how much benchmark-relative price independence is required before the script treats the event as more than a statistical fluctuation. Breakdown Confirmation Bars / Repair Confirmation Bars Control persistence and confirmation sensitivity. Visual Settings Users can customize theme, visual intensity, panel font size, panel position, event visibility, trail visibility, and chart context density. Limitations & Transparency Correlation is a descriptive relationship metric, not a causal model. A relationship breakdown does not automatically imply immediate continuation, reversal, trend acceleration, or trade opportunity. It only means the chart symbol is no longer behaving as consistently relative to the selected benchmark under the current settings. Different assets, timeframes, and volatility regimes can produce different correlation behavior. A benchmark relationship that looks stable on one timeframe may be much less stable on another. Short lookbacks can react faster but may create more noise. Longer lookbacks can be more stable but slower to react. This script should be interpreted in the context of market structure, volatility, liquidity, and the chosen benchmark. It is a framework for reading relationship quality, not a guarantee engine. Risk Disclosure This indicator is for analytical and educational use. It does not provide financial advice, does not predict future price direction, and should not be used in isolation for trading decisions. Users should perform their own analysis, validate settings on the markets they follow, and apply appropriate risk management.
Indikator
von AGProLabs
1
Chandelier Exit Reaction Zones + Fib LevelsAt its core, this script is built on a Chandelier Exit-style ATR stop-and-flip engine. The difference is that instead of stopping at a single trailing stop, it expands that framework into a full ladder: the multiplier 10 level becomes the primary anchor, the opposite-side multiplier 10 level becomes the extension anchor, and the space between them is mapped with a fib channel. Optional Chandelier Exit multipliers of 5.0 and 7.5 reaction zones add another layer of context for tracking how price behaves before it reaches the full multiplier 10 stretch. The main idea is simple: markets often react when price gets extended, but not every extension behaves the same way. Sometimes price reaches an ATR threshold and reverses. Sometimes it reaches the same area and continues. This script is meant to organize that behavior into a structure you can read quickly. The Chandelier Exit engine provides the directional framework, while the ladder, fib channel, and reaction zones help show where price is stretched, where it is progressing through the channel, and where a reaction may be worth paying closer attention to. At a high level, the script does three things. First, it identifies the current active ATR 10 side and the opposite ATR 10x extension. Second, it divides that space into a structured ladder using fib-based levels. Third, it can overlay ATR 5.0 and 7.5 reaction zones so you can see when price is pressing into an intermediate reaction area instead of only waiting for the full ATR 10 test. A few examples of how to read it: ➡️In a bullish state, the active ATR 10 line acts as the lower anchor and the ATR 10x extension becomes the upper stretch line. The fib ladder shows how far price has progressed through that channel. ➡️In a bearish state, the structure flips. The active ATR 10 line becomes the upper anchor and the ATR 10x extension becomes the lower stretch line. The optional ATR 5.0 and 7.5 reaction zones add another layer of context. They are useful when price is not yet at the full ATR 10 extreme but is already entering a part of the move where reaction risk is increasing. ➡️The reaction zones table is there to make the state logic visible. It shows the current main multiplier's direction, the latest flip state, the 5.0 / 7.5 reaction directions, and whether those reaction branches are actively contributing to the fill. This is not meant to predict reversals by itself. The way I use it is more practical: it helps frame where price is stretched, where a move is still developing, and where a reaction may deserve closer attention. The value here is the structure, not a guaranteed signal. The script also includes state-aware touch alerts for the active ATR 10 level and the ATR 10x extension. Those alerts are not entry signals on their own. They are meant to notify you when price has reached an area that may deserve a decision: continuation, reaction, or invalidation. Bar Replay Bar Replay is especially useful with this script. Stepping through price one bar at a time makes it much easier to see how the multiplier 10 ladder flips, how the fib channel reorients, and when the 5.0 / 7.5 reaction zones begin to matter. That can help traders understand the structure in motion instead of only judging it from a finished chart. Confluence This script is not meant to be used in isolation. It works best as a structural framework alongside other tools such as RSI, MACD, trend context, volume, and support/resistance. The ladder and reaction zones help define where price is stretched; confluence helps decide whether that stretch is more likely to lead to continuation, reaction, or reversal. This is an open-source tool, so the goal is transparency and flexibility. Traders can keep it simple and use only the main ATR 10 ladder, or add the fib channel, reaction zones, candle coloring, alerts, and table for more context. The core idea stays the same either way: use a Chandelier Exit-style ATR framework to map stretched price conditions with a consistent structure. Here's a few additional chart examples:
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von MYNAMEISBRANDON
2
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression OscillatorOverview The Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Oscillator (BLR Osc.) is an analytical tool designed to measure Bitcoin's price deviation from its historical logarithmic growth curve. By comparing the current price to a mathematical "fair value," this indicator helps traders and investors identify macroeconomic accumulation zones and potential market cycle peaks. How it Works Historically, Bitcoin's price action has followed a non-linear, logarithmic growth trajectory where the rate of growth slows down over time. This script calculates a theoretical "fair value" based on the number of days since the first available price data, using the following logarithmic regression model: Fair Value = 10^(a * ln(days) + b) The oscillator at the bottom of the chart represents the natural logarithm of the ratio between the current closing price and this fair value math.log(close / fairValue) A value of 0 means the price is exactly at its fair value. Positive values indicate overvaluation and potential market exuberance (cycle tops). Negative values highlight undervaluation and accumulation phases (bear market bottoms). How to Use Monitor the oscillator in the lower pane to gauge the current stage of the market cycle. When the oscillator drops below the user-defined Buy Threshold (default is -0.50), the script highlights these undervalued zones by turning both the oscillator line and the price line green. 💡 Visualization Tip: If you want to see the regression curve and colored line on your main chart pane more clearly, you can hide the default standard Bitcoin candles using the chart's object tree/settings. Conversely, if you only want to use the oscillator in the lower pane and keep your main chart clean, simply uncheck the "Plot on the Main Pane" option in the indicator's settings. Curve Calibration & Customization The default mathematical coefficients provided in this script are based on an approximation fitted on March 30, 2026 (with an R² = 0.9720). Because the logarithmic curve requires periodic recalibration as new market data emerges, advanced users can perform their own mathematical approximations. You can easily update the coefficients by entering your new a (slope) , b (intercept) , and offset (days) values directly into the indicator's settings menu under the "Logarithmic Regression" group. There is no need to edit the source code.
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von ChartNChill
Pi Cycle Top OscillatorOverview The Pi Cycle Top Oscillator is an advanced, adaptive iteration of the classic Pi Cycle Top indicator, reimagined as a continuous risk metric. While the original indicator famously predicted Bitcoin’s macro peaks by waiting for a binary crossover of the 111-day SMA and the 2x 350-day SMA, this script translates the relationship between these two moving averages into a normalized 0 to 1 oscillator, providing both buy and sell signals. As an asset matures, its volatility historically compresses. In the 2021 cycle, the classic moving averages barely touched, meaning future cycles might never see a pure crossover due to the law of diminishing returns. This oscillator solves that problem by replacing the rigid crossover requirement with dynamic, regression-based boundaries. Tip Hide the Bitcoin price chart to clearly view the metric in the main chart pane: How it Works Instead of waiting for a binary signal, this indicator calculates the exact mathematical ratio between the two moving averages: ratio = ta.sma(close, 111) / (ta.sma(close, 350) * 2) Using historical extremes of this ratio, the script projects two dynamic boundaries: Top Boundary: A logarithmic regression curve that accounts for historical volatility decay, descending over time. Bottom Boundary: A linear regression line representing macro bottoms. The current ratio is then normalized between these two converging lines, producing a continuous Risk metric. Key Features Continuous Risk Scale: Unlike the classic indicator which is either "on" or "off", this oscillator provides a constant reading from 0 (historical bottom) to 1 (probable macro top). Volatility Adjusted: The logarithmic top line factors in macro volatility decay, ensuring the indicator remains relevant in future cycles even if a classic crossover never occurs. Visual Chart Feedback: The main chart automatically highlights price bars in Green when Risk falls below your custom Buy Zone Level, and Red when Risk exceeds your Sell Zone Level. Dual Display Modes: Use the indicator settings to toggle between the normalized 0-1 "Oscillator" view and the raw "Fit Lines" view to see the actual ratio and regression curves. How to Use This tool is designed for macro-level portfolio risk management rather than short-term trading. Accumulation: Readings near or below 0.1 historically correlate with macro bottoms, presenting potential long-term accumulation zones. Distribution: Readings near or above 0.9 indicate severe market overheating, signaling potential distribution zones. You can adjust the Buy and Sell zone thresholds in the indicator settings to fit your personal risk tolerance. Limitations Bitcoin Exclusive: This indicator is designed strictly for analyzing Bitcoin. Its mathematical model is based entirely on Bitcoin's historical macro cycles and is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies or traditional assets. No Guaranteed Extremes: There are no guarantees that the oscillator will reach the upper or lower boundaries in future cycles, nor that it will remain strictly within the 0 to 1 range. For example, during the 2025 cycle, the oscillator never reached the theoretical sell zone, demonstrating that market dynamics can and do shift. Static Curve Fitting: The regression curves for the upper and lower boundaries were fitted using the global tops and bottoms of the 111-day and 2x 350-day SMA ratio prior to 2023. The resulting equation coefficients are hardcoded directly into the script. As new macro extremes form in the future, these boundary models may eventually require a new approximation to maintain their accuracy.
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von ChartNChill
BTC Halving & Supply HistoryIf you’ve been in crypto long enough, you know that everything literally everything revolves around the Bitcoin Halving. It’s the "clock" that the entire market runs on. I built this script because I got tired of manually scrolling back to 2012 or 2016 to see how far we were from a bottom or a peak. This indicator puts Bitcoin’s DNA directly on your chart so you can stop guessing where we are in the cycle. What’s under the hood? The History Lesson: It automatically marks every major milestone from the Genesis Block in 2009 to the 2024 Halving. It doesn’t just draw a line; it tells you exactly what the block reward was and how much supply was issued during that era. The 2028 Goalposts: It projects the 5th Halving (mid-2028) into the future. This is huge for planning exits. If you’re going long in late 2026, this line shows you exactly how much "runway" you have before the next supply shock. Live Countdown: I added a small, clean box in the top-right corner that tells you exactly how many days are left until the 2028 halving. It’s a great reality check when the market gets volatile and you need to remember the long game.
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von sypherh
Contrarian Extremes: VIX + Put/Call (CPC, PCC)What this indicator does (in one line :) ): It highlights sentiment extremes using only CPC, PCC , and VIX , so you can spot the moments when the market is most likely overreacting. Most indicators try to “predict” price. This one is simpler, it tracks Fear vs Euphoria and marks the zones where emotions are stretched. The 3 inputs behind it INDEX:CPC (TotalPut/Call) --> broad options sentiment USI:PCC --> equity/retail-style fear proxy CBOE:VIX --> volatility stress / hedging pressure What you’ll see on the chart The script paints the background based on 3 regimes: 🫨 Panic --> extreme stress (capitulation-type conditions) --> 🎶 The background music is (Melancholy Man by The Moody Blues) 😨 😰 Fear / Risk-Off --> elevated fear --> defensive positioning 😌 Complacency / Calm --> low fear --> “everything is fine” mode --> 🎶 The background music is (What a Wonderful World by Louis Armstrong) 😁 All thresholds and colors are fully customizable in the Inputs, so you can also change the criteria to get higher or lower frequency signals on the chart. How I personally interpret it (as a long-term investor) In my backtests, this indicator behaves like a contrarian compass: Fear / Panic zones often show up close to better long-term buy areas (not perfect timing, but good asymmetric entries). Complacency zones often show up near better long-term reduce / take-profit areas (or at least be careful with fresh risk here). This is not magic and it’s not a buy/sell button. Markets can stay fearful or complacent longer than you expect. But as a long-term investor , this helps you stop chasing hype and start scaling decisions around emotion extremes. A simple long-term workflow: Use Daily or Weekly timeframe. When Fear/Panic appears: consider scaling in (DCA entries, add on confirmation, respect your risk limits). When Complacency appears: consider scaling out, tightening risk, or being picky with new buys. Always combine with basics: trend, levels, market structure, and risk management. Where it tends to work best Interestingly, this doesn’t only fit S&P/Nasdaq. It also behaves well on: OANDA:XAUUSD & OANDA:XAGUSD Large-cap stocks ( NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:META ) BINANCE:BTCUSD & BINANCE:ETHUSD In general, it tends to work better (i.e. helps you more) in markets that move more on fear and greed and less on deep fundamental re-pricing. ⚠️ Disclaimer: educational tool only. No indicator is a guarantee. Use proper position sizing and understand the product you trade.
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von SamanFx0
2