Many people ask how high XRP can realistically go this cycle.
If we look at historical price development, in 2017 XRP had actually two rallies.
The first brought it to a full 4.236 fibonacci extension at 0.45 in May 2017, and then the second rally to 3.5 USD in January 2018.
I think that such a double rally will probably occur again this time, however, I think that the second rally will then hit the full
fib extension at 4.236, not already the first one.
Why? Because of market cap plausibility.
In the last cycle, ETH and XRP were at about 50% BTC marketcap at their peaks.
When XRP made the peak, this meant with BTC being around 17k USD, so a marketcap of around 300 billion USD, that XRP would be at 150 billion USD marketcap, thus around 3.5 USD.
This time however, the same price increase for XRP would mean that it is either above BTC marketcap, which I think is impossible, or that BTC is at values of millions of USD, which I also think
is impossible this cycle.
So this would mean the following. If BTC hits 100k this rally around the top, this will be a marketcap of around 2 trillion USD. XRP in the peak will hit 1 trillion USD, so a peak at 22 USD.
Accordingly, BTC hits 200k, then XRP at 44 USD.
BTC at 300k, then XRP at 66 USD. Interestingly, this last number is quite exactly at the full 4.236 Fibonacci extension of the last cycle high and low.
So if BTC really goes to 300k, and it really currently looks as if this turns out to be the most realistic scenario, as crazy as it sounds, then the top of XRPUSD will likely be in the 60 USD range.
It sounds insane now, but remember that 3.5 USD for XRP also sounded insane in January 2017.
If we look at historical price development, in 2017 XRP had actually two rallies.
The first brought it to a full 4.236 fibonacci extension at 0.45 in May 2017, and then the second rally to 3.5 USD in January 2018.
I think that such a double rally will probably occur again this time, however, I think that the second rally will then hit the full
fib extension at 4.236, not already the first one.
Why? Because of market cap plausibility.
In the last cycle, ETH and XRP were at about 50% BTC marketcap at their peaks.
When XRP made the peak, this meant with BTC being around 17k USD, so a marketcap of around 300 billion USD, that XRP would be at 150 billion USD marketcap, thus around 3.5 USD.
This time however, the same price increase for XRP would mean that it is either above BTC marketcap, which I think is impossible, or that BTC is at values of millions of USD, which I also think
is impossible this cycle.
So this would mean the following. If BTC hits 100k this rally around the top, this will be a marketcap of around 2 trillion USD. XRP in the peak will hit 1 trillion USD, so a peak at 22 USD.
Accordingly, BTC hits 200k, then XRP at 44 USD.
BTC at 300k, then XRP at 66 USD. Interestingly, this last number is quite exactly at the full 4.236 Fibonacci extension of the last cycle high and low.
So if BTC really goes to 300k, and it really currently looks as if this turns out to be the most realistic scenario, as crazy as it sounds, then the top of XRPUSD will likely be in the 60 USD range.
It sounds insane now, but remember that 3.5 USD for XRP also sounded insane in January 2017.
Kommentar:
I expect a breakout at the latest in 3 weeks:
Kommentar:
To the upside of course :)
Kommentar:
The wedge is still intact and will break in the next 1-2 weeks.
What then you ask?
Insane bullrun to the first intermediary local top of 14.6 USD, that's what :)
What then you ask?
Insane bullrun to the first intermediary local top of 14.6 USD, that's what :)
Kommentar: