BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Here's an overview of all intermediate corrections of 2017.

General notes:
  • I'm using a log scale and Heikin Ashi candles (which does not change lows and highs) to better visualize the trend;
  • Blue arrows/green rectangles connect the lowest point to the highest point of an intermediary bull run;
  • Yellow arrows/red rectangles connect the highest point to the lowest point of an intermediary downtrend;
  • The Fibonacci retracements are relative to the green rectangles.

Here are some notes about the null runs (green rectangles):
  • The longest bull run lasted 78 days and took place from early-April to mid-June;
  • On average, bull runs lasted for 54.6 days before reversing;
  • On average, bull runs raised the price in 187.71%.

We can measure corrections in relation to price (red rectangles) or in relation to the previous run (Fibonacci retracements).
Here are some notes about the corrections:
  • The longest correction lasted 35 days and took place from mid-June to mid-July, right after the longest bull run;
  • The length of the correction above was 45% of its previous bull run;
  • The length of 2 other corrections was ~25% of their previous bull run;
  • On average, corrections lasted for 14.6 days before reversing;
  • On average, corrections retraced 37% in relation to price;
  • On average, corrections retraced 47% in relation to their previous bull run;
  • The previous 2 corrections ended close to the top of their second to last bull run;
  • The minimum point of all previous corrections (tip of the yellow arrows) was also their reversal point.

Some things about the current correction that got my attention:
Its lowest point (10.9k on 12/22) was not its reversal point like on the previous ones, instead, it has gone up a little only to continue the downtrend right after. We'd have to go back to 10.9k, probably lower, to not break this "rule".

At its lowest point, It has already retraced 45.75% of the price and 62% of the previous bull run, both very above average (but that's ok for now since its previous bull run was the biggest of all, with 267.73% gains), and we still haven't come close to the high of the second to last bull run.

It's already 16 days, which is a little above average (but nowhere close to the longest one), and 46% of the length of the previous bull run, the longest one lasted 45% of its previous bull run.

All this makes me think that the magenta trend line will break and take us back to at least 10.9k again, maybe to 8.6k (next fib, which has much more support if you look at the volume profile on the right) or in between both (orange and red arrows), resulting in a 30ish day correction to end in mid to late January. That would invalidate the magenta trendline and take us back to one of the last 2 bull trendlines (green/light green), or start a new one somewhere in between.

Needs to break the red trendline to reverse.
Trade ist aktiv: Red line broken. Reversal should be confirmed with a 17k break.
Kommentar: If the reversal is confirmed and we make an average bull run (187.71%) the target is 31400 USD.
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