Gold (XAUUSD): Bearish Signals Hint at Possible Drop to $1000!

24. Apr.

Upon examining the monthly gold chart, it appears there could be a significant price drop, a secondary scenario in our analysis. We don't foresee a 50% decrease in the near future, though it's not impossible, especially if the market downturn affects all sectors, including gold. It's crucial to consider all possibilities due to market unpredictability, even a drop to $1000 per ounce.



This view is backed by a bearish RSI divergence since 1966 and signs that we might be completing the first 5-wave cycle, which could reach up to $3000 per ounce but should not exceed this level.

Currently, the apparent breakout seems to be a fake-out. Surpassing $3000 would mean our analysis underestimates the bullish potential.

Elliott Wave Theory suggests Wave 5 might break out from the trendline formed by Waves 1 and 3, create a fake-out, then sharply decline, aligning with our secondary scenario for gold. We plan to further explore and outline our primary scenario in the next section.

Anyway, when closely examining the 12-hour gold chart, we primarly anticipate a continued upward movement rather than a sharp downturn. We believe that the minor Wave 1 has concluded, and we should see a retracement to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level, where we expect to find support at the High-Volume Node.

The recent upward trend has been quite extreme. Therefore, we predict finding support between $2,200 and $2,130, before potentially breaking through the $2,500 mark, which we expect to coincide with the completion of the major Wave (3) or minor Wave 3.

10. Juni

Anmerkung

One of our members has pointed out the significant sell-off in gold. We are maintaining our limit order at approximately $2,208, which corresponds to the 50% retracement level. Currently, gold is in a consolidation phase near what might be the top of Wave 1.

We had a strong upward movement followed by a sideways phase, typical of consolidation before a breakout in either direction. Given the recent strong rise, we anticipate a downward breakout to address the current imbalances, especially since gold is near its all-time high. Unlike a stock like Nvidia, gold's behavior suggests a likely pullback before any further ascent. It's crucial that gold does not fall below the $2,150 level, as this could lead to a rapid decline to $2,000. We expect to see a rise in the gold price this week, followed by a sell-off towards our limit order around $2,208.

19. Juli

Anmerkung

You can look for an update following the chart below: