Buying bias near exhaustion / Crossroads of the Short-term

28. Juli 2022

Gold's general commentary: Price-action is looking to retest #1,742.80 - #1,752.80 Resistance as post-Fed sessions are always ones with violent Volatility, which was aswell normal ahead of one of the biggest economic releases (Rate decision). Personally, I believe that current ranging market is just side effect and Gold should sooner or later engage full scale decline towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier or even less as Rate numbers are not drastically changed. Besides, there is Bearish Gap fill on DX which will most likely be filled and extend Bullish run on DX. Bond Yields on the other side bounced well of from Weekly Support zone of #2.743 and Technically can extend it's upswing towards #3.000 psychological barrier. Mix of those #3 factors should add significant Selling pressure on Gold and deliver decent opportunity to Sell Gold from local Top’s.


Technical analysis: Another strong consolidation throughout early U.S. session opening (throughout yesterday's sessio), Daily chart candle (# +1.10% so far) was Neutral however now with Bullish sentiment regarding Short-term, as I won’t be surprised to see Gold piercing the Lower High’s Upper zone around #1,742.80 - #1,752.80 on the strongest catalyst for the week aftermath. I expect Bullish candles / consolidation before an aggressive Gap fill below #1,732.80 well known Support fractal. DX is on the #3rd straight Bearish engulfing candle, applying heavy Buying pressure on Gold, as the most important Bullish (regarding Gold) factor at the moment, and sole reason why Gold ain’t below #1,732.80 Technical Support at the moment, and is the constant pressure on Global geopolitics (striking news about Fed hiding the real truth about the Inflation and evident Gold futures manipulation) aswell as Congress being too far away from new Monetary stimulus launch - all those developments are Fundamentally Bullish for Gold on Short-term, which cause safe-haven assets (Gold) to gain and DX to lose as Investors are pursuing safer assets to park their capital. This shows how overpriced Gold was lately due to these Fundamental tensions during this most recent Medium-term Bullish leg (#2021 Year), and after needed correction, should be ready for a new #100 + point decline. The Medium-term Technical trend still didn’t assumed control from the Fundamentals as despite this and last week’s reports missing their estimates, Bond Yields are in disastrous shape and are Trading near the (Triple Bottom) Support zone. The reason Gold was in downtrend lately more than (# -2.00%) was due to current #127 point decline rejection being too close to the multi-Month’s Support Zone on the Daily chart (no reason to expect a Multi-Month Support to break without a cause). Daily chart turned fully Bearish while Monthly chart is not Oversold anymore.


My position: After pricing the expected #1,752.80 local High's, Buying bias is showing signs of exhaustion as Price-action may be looking to price a Top here (temporary or not). As RSI is slowly limiting the uptrend and current sequence is near Fib retracement, it is very possible that Buying sequence may be stalled here (at least for current session) and I will look to re-Sell Gold near #1,752.80 barrier. However if today's market closing is completed above #1,752.80 barrier, it will be sign of total Short-term Buying domination where Price-action may pursue #1,772.80 Lower High's Upper zone extension.