GOLD, big things are taking place

21. Dez. 2023

Welcome everyone,
GOLD made a lot of weird moves in the past weeks and is still not showing a clear direction at all. Beside the strong bullish trend, there was a massive sell of from the ATH and we are close to an important decision. As you can see in orange the price tested the upper boundary of the consolidation range for the 4th time and got rejected, but it's back for another attempt.

To make clear why this is important:
The consolidation took years and the price range is massive, a break above 2080 would open a lot of new higher targets and a significant bull run should start from there.
On the other hand a rejection and sell of below 1980 should send the price lower in a 2nd wave according to the elliot wave theory, which price targets would be 1920,1900 and even 18xx levels.

I will keep this idea updated, so if you like to follow, welcome here :)

26. Dez. 2023

Anmerkung

As you may noticed, we are close to the yellow line, which should be the maximum for the bearish scenario.
Everyone, who is interested in shorting should look for an entry between 2060 and 2075. Keep in mind that there is a possibility of a fake breakout over 2075.

The long scenario will be way more difficult to anticipate, as we need a sustained break of the yellow line and even the ATH to confirm it.

28. Dez. 2023

Anmerkung

Today's move changed the situation to a more bullish view, but there is no confirmation so far. Please keep in mind that the trading volume in the last days of the year is very low, so fake moves are more likely.

28. Dez. 2023

Anmerkung

Key resistance is 2084 - 2090. Observe this level carefully.

29. Dez. 2023

Anmerkung

Alright, as I mentioned in yesterdays comment the resistance showed up to be very important for gold, the price dropped sharply and the daily candle close is showing a possible change in trend. It is important to observe how Gold will close the weekly candle. If there will be a huge rejection like we saw today, it's likely, that the bearish move will start next week. Anyway for me it's not suitable to go long in Gold as long as the price stays below 2084-2090, but the possibility for a deep correction or even a trend change is high.

8. Jan.

Anmerkung

With fridays NFP data and weekly close we have a first confirmation for the bearish move and the price is already falling. Further evidence will be a break below 2026 with is the actual low and rising trendline for Gold.

Most important structure to the downside is 1970 - 1980.

26. Jan.

Anmerkung

The price is caught the range of 2000 - 2040 for a long period of time now. Currently I'm looking for a bearish continuation towards 1980 area, which could happen next week.

1. Feb.

Anmerkung

Price broke out of the range and reached 2065. This could just be a retest of the monthly candle open from January, but we don't know yet for sure. It's way to early to call for a long trend as long as we don't have a candle close above 2060 or better 2080. The chances for another correctional movement are high. The current movement would than simple be a wave B of the wave C pointing towards 1960.

5. Feb.

Anmerkung

The price development clearly took out the long trend and today 2015 was reached again. So far the 2020 area is holding the price, but as soon as it breaks down we should see a move towards 1980.

If you are not in a sell position yet, keep an eye on the 2030-2040 area. As I can see wave B has been developing in a triangle pattern (starting from 2088) and could be ready to break down soon in wave C (target 1980).

6. Feb.

Anmerkung

Triangle pattern seems to be confirming. Expect a sell of in the near future.

17. Feb.

Anmerkung

The sell of was successful and the recovery already stared and reached 2015 again. We should see another short wave from this area, or potentially from 2030 area.

19. Feb.

Anmerkung

It's getting a bit boring but so far the short trend is valid. To reach lower targets a weekly candle close below 2000 is needed.

2. März

Anmerkung

The move from friday brings up the question if the correction is already over. At this point I don't have a clear answer, but there is a first candle close above the 2078-80 key level. Anyway it's very risky to buy from this point, so it would be better to wait for a pullback if you want to go long.

6. März

Anmerkung

Gold was really tricky to read the last weeks. Now we got a very strong move back to the ATH area and a solid candle close above 2075 (yellow line) for the first time. We now have to see if we complete this impulsive structure with five waves and get a three wave correctional pattern.