XAUUSD: Some information and forecast for next week

Gold prices rose back above the psychologically important level of $1,950 per ounce in the last trading session of the week as US inflation eased in line with expectations.

Specifically, the US Department of Commerce reported that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index increased by 0.2% in June. This figure was lower than the 0.3% growth recorded in May, aligning with economists' expectations.

Over the past 12 months, inflation rose by 4.1%, marking a significant decrease compared to the 4.6% increase in June. The annual inflation rate also slightly declined compared to economists' forecast of 4.2%. Despite the notable decline in inflation, it remains nearly double the target set by the US Federal Reserve, which is doing everything possible to achieve its goal.

The core inflation rate increased by 4.1% year-on-year, a considerable drop from the 4.6% growth recorded in May. Although inflation is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, some analysts noted that it is heading in the right direction, which might persuade the Fed to maintain interest rates in September. The possibility of the central bank pausing its tightening policy continues to support the gold price.

Analysts also point out that the growing cracks in consumer spending further support the gold price. Reports highlight that personal income is failing to keep up with spending. Specifically, personal income increased by 0.3% in June, compared to the revised 0.5% growth in May. The data fell short of economists' expectations of a 0.5% increase

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The latest weekly gold survey by Kitco News shows that retail investors expect gold prices to rise in the coming week. Meanwhile, market analysts are more cautious as they await clear signals from economic indicators and technical trends.

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Colin Cieszynski, the market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, believes that gold is likely to trend downwards in the coming week, despite the positive rebound seen in the last session.

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On the other hand, Adrian Day, the President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees the recent statements from the Fed and persistent inflation as factors supporting a price increase for gold.

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We are nearing the end of the US Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, while inflation rates may reverse and pick up again after a few months due to higher oil prices impacting the economy and affecting transportation and most commodities in stores.

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XAUUSD SELL 1956 -1958

TP1 1952
TP2 1948

SL 1962

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Gold Price jostles with support-turned-resistance after posting the first weekly loss in four.

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Gold Price licks its wounds after snapping a three-week uptrend as weekend headlines from China and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari prod the US Dollar bulls and allow the market sentiment to remain firmer.

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On the other hand, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of job losses and slower growth while praising the inflation outlook. The policymaker also criticized the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges.

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Gold price finds pressure above $,1,960 as investors shift focus to the July Manufacturing PMI reported by the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

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China, India news weigh on XAU/USD

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Gold price is still in a correction phase after creating a double top pattern at the 1972 price range to the maximum, now the price is trading in 1957, the structure is still falling and there is no sign of turning up again.

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The precious metal was under pressure as the ADP report showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased sharply in July. Specifically, there were 324,000 jobs created last month. The data significantly beat economists' expectations that about 191,000 would be generated. Newly released numbers showing the health of the job market continue to support expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to raise interest rates more.

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It can be seen that the gold market is facing a kind of "headwind" as the use of resilience, a healthy labor market and strong economic activity support the positive monetary policies of the United States. feed. Even so, TD Securities, a Canadian investment bank, still finds factors supporting gold reaching record highs later this year.

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Analysts note that the dollar and bond yields have benefited from safe-haven outflows, which has held back gold. Yields on 10-year bonds rebounded above 4%; Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is trading at a 4-week high above 102 points. With these headwinds, gold prices have dropped to a 3-week low and are testing a key support level.