GOLD (XAUUSD) - THE BIG ABC DOWN

After the preview idea of the ABC correction (the Gartely pattern) up to 1965 that earned 1000+ pips in both ways (buying the B and selling the C), this idea would shows my bigger ABC Cycle count with shorts target to 1765. In the follow you can see 2 my short ideas on Gold that are still in play. I will update this idea with screeshots of the inner moves count if it will play out well. Good luck! :D

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The potential inner count shows that we would be in a 4th wave, preparing the last impulse down before a rise up:

so a contracting triangle might be completed with an ABCD corrective 4th wave, target around 1832 then long up tyo 1900?

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we are holding short from 1956; now added shorts at 1884, tgt: 1832 / 1825 for the completition of the last leg down before the correction up:

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Another contracting triangle. Have we bottomed with this impulse or not?

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Well, we hedged the position at the break up of 1863 when we saw that 1857 / 61 area did not break down. So, now we have 2 possibile scenarios, the first one is the continuation down at 45 - 32 area before of a bounce up above 1900, like previously mentioned above. The second one is that we are again into a correction and we are going up to 1901 / 1915 area for a C leg like the following draw:

Now we have to see how will react the 1865 pivotal level for a confirmation on the next move, meanwhile we are out watching closely.

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this could be a prediction on the next move:

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The second possibile scenario with the same targets at 45-32 area is this. Contracting triangle for the 4th wave, the inner count looks good, so if we NOT break up 1883 we probably will be in this situation:

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updates:

if this channel will be respected we might see 5 waves up for and extended C to 1900 - 20, otherwise if will breaks out of the channel, we might see the prosecution of the contracting triangle (abcde).

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updates:

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ok, this is how looks at 4hr, seems we are contracting into the white TLs

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this is my actual count:

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Daily analysis updates: we are in a new big corrective move inside of a rising channel (or big bear flag)

Well, so we might are in 2 possibile scenarios:
1) an ABCDE is already completed:

so in this case we could see a continuation down
2) we are only in the completition of a B and we will see a new leg (the C) up to 1905 /1920 area (maybe higher also) before of a new impulse down. According with the inner counts this second case is the most probable in my opinion.
This would be the inner count inside these moves:

as we can see, looks like a 3-3-5 in the first ABC (yellow path), and a 5-3-5 in the second one (green path), so this might make we think to the possibility of an A-B and a missed C so far.
Let's waiting for the next move

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Errata corrige: missed to post the second case, thats it:

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Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht:

Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht