Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another data

15. Aug. 2019

A temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets.

Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum.

Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales.

Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound.

Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.