Gold weekly Forecast 25.03-31.03
On Friday there was big chance Gold to go up. The news that German stocks and banks are red, should push Gold up. It does not happened, instead Gold bounced and start forming consolidation.
Because of the current Macroeconomics, it is not clear how big will be the consolidation, but overall Market Sentiment is bullish. Technical analysis are bearish for now.
I marked two areas, where I am expecting Gold to react.
1) Gold may respect the trend line and create triangle.
2) It may forming a flat consolidation, expecting the current low to me taken, reacting of 1920 area.
Not sure how fast price will move next week, but first few days, expecting to be bear days.
Macroeconomics
This year the situation is even more crazy than previous one. Last year was easy, we had to be worried only about the inflation.
Higher inflation - higher rates - Gold down
Pause or lower inflation - possible slow down of the rates - Gold up.
Now is complete different. Higher rates, caused Banks crisis, Inflation is not going down, FED are printing money again. All these factors are very bullish for Gold.
Top-Down Analysis
Last week closed as bearish doji, also price gaped down. Lower prices are very possible.
On daily TF market structure is bullish, but may be it is time the second retracement to be made. It is not clear for now.
On 4H TF price formed reversal pattern. Price formed low liquidity bearish move, negating previous bullish manipulation.
Benchmark
Overall prices are still bullish, but the divergence between assets/indices may be a sign for temporary reversal.
COT Reports
The professional traders are very bullish on Gold and Silver. No reason to think about major reversal.
Gold vs Yields
Yields have still bearish outlook. The current rejection, caused the Friday decline on Gold. 2Y Yields were bullish manipulated, thats why they may go up for a while.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going up, thats why I dont see big reversal for XAUUSD. Bearish XAUUSD candles will be more likely to happen only because of the current Yields rejection.
Gold vs Silver
Currently the assets diverged, meaning Gold will probably go down for a while. But I am expecting only small retracement.
Volume Spread Analysis
No more volume. Price will retrace or consolidate. FOMC Meeting caused big gap on Future market, so closing the gap is very likely.
Retail Support and Resistance
It is difficult to make some analysis, based on classical Support and Resistance, because price just not move like that. However sometimes price respect these levels.
Momentum
Momentum is still bullish, expecting consolidation or shallow retracement.
Because of the current Macroeconomics, it is not clear how big will be the consolidation, but overall Market Sentiment is bullish. Technical analysis are bearish for now.
I marked two areas, where I am expecting Gold to react.
1) Gold may respect the trend line and create triangle.
2) It may forming a flat consolidation, expecting the current low to me taken, reacting of 1920 area.
Not sure how fast price will move next week, but first few days, expecting to be bear days.
Macroeconomics
This year the situation is even more crazy than previous one. Last year was easy, we had to be worried only about the inflation.
Higher inflation - higher rates - Gold down
Pause or lower inflation - possible slow down of the rates - Gold up.
Now is complete different. Higher rates, caused Banks crisis, Inflation is not going down, FED are printing money again. All these factors are very bullish for Gold.
Top-Down Analysis
Last week closed as bearish doji, also price gaped down. Lower prices are very possible.
On daily TF market structure is bullish, but may be it is time the second retracement to be made. It is not clear for now.
On 4H TF price formed reversal pattern. Price formed low liquidity bearish move, negating previous bullish manipulation.
Benchmark
Overall prices are still bullish, but the divergence between assets/indices may be a sign for temporary reversal.
COT Reports
The professional traders are very bullish on Gold and Silver. No reason to think about major reversal.
Gold vs Yields
Yields have still bearish outlook. The current rejection, caused the Friday decline on Gold. 2Y Yields were bullish manipulated, thats why they may go up for a while.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going up, thats why I dont see big reversal for XAUUSD. Bearish XAUUSD candles will be more likely to happen only because of the current Yields rejection.
Gold vs Silver
Currently the assets diverged, meaning Gold will probably go down for a while. But I am expecting only small retracement.
Volume Spread Analysis
No more volume. Price will retrace or consolidate. FOMC Meeting caused big gap on Future market, so closing the gap is very likely.
Retail Support and Resistance
It is difficult to make some analysis, based on classical Support and Resistance, because price just not move like that. However sometimes price respect these levels.
Momentum
Momentum is still bullish, expecting consolidation or shallow retracement.
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