GOLD → Friday's buyback. NonFarm in the coming week

30. Juli 2023

XAUUSD after breaking the global trend support and attempting to change the trend is not in a hurry to fall yet, most likely the price is looking for confirmation of which way to go. Consolidation is forming which may confuse many.



In the coming week there are quite important key reports:

• - ISM Manufacturing PMI (analysts expect a slight strengthening of the indicator)
  
• - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (may be followed by an improvement on the back of GDP growth)
  
• - Initial Jobless Claims (analysts expect deterioration of the indicator, last week the indicator was upgraded at the forecasted deterioration).
  
• - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (analysts expect a deterioration)
  
• - NonFarm Payrolls ! (Analysts expect it to worsen from 209K to 184K)
  
• - Unemployment Rate (unchanged)
  

Against the backdrop of a rising GDP and a relative decline in inflation (unconfirmed), the indicators of the upcoming news may change relative to the expected data. If the expected data is confirmed, then the dollar may lose some ground and give a little room for gold to strengthen.



From the technical analysis point of view:
The price is in a sideways flat after the breakout of the global bullish channel. Everyone expected a sharp fall after breaking the support, but with the unstable fundamental background, gold is strengthening and forming a flat within 1983 - 1935. If we take a closer look, we can see a reversal set-up against the upper boundary of the range, which is a strong resistance, but on Friday gold buys back a 0.9% drop and once again questions the H&S set-up formed.
At the moment the 1959.8 resistance plays a key role, the price forms a false break of the level but at the same time closes very close to this line, from the opening of the session a gap up could follow which would open the price above 1960. Since the price is flat and closed last session within the setup, the local strengthening may continue to 1980, and then we have to watch the price reaction to these levels.



We should also pay attention to the fact that on the background of the news a strong bearish impulse was formed, which broke several supports and formed a correction to 1959.8. If this level is held by the sellers, the bears may send the price to 1948 for a retest (negative fundamental background is still present in the market).

Regards R. Linda!