The Painful Wait

Shorts have been decimated over the last 2 months.

Noone can predict what comes next but i am still holding short despite the pain. I did stop adding once i realized I probably started early.

The UVXY chart shows my thoughts. RSI breakout will be the signal as it has been in the past, target zone is labeled.

Big picture I think the market tops at some point in 2021 and a much overdue recession occurs. Inflation is real.

Best of luck.

S+S
TTT

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I believe a weekly close above median BB (currently 9.92) would secure the rise to target zone.

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Market may top in September/October

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Interesting RSI Bullish divergence being witnessed on the short term S&P 500 volatility futures. This is what UVXY is based on

It has worked for the major crashes since 2018 and is forecasting we may be fast approaching the next top.
imgur.com/Pz7G0Y0

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I believe UVXY is targeting approximately 13 at the moment. Then back down until August - October when the real ripper happens

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If the market pops higher to August it confirms IMO the bubble pops this year. Possibly 1900 target by EOY. As burry said, bubbles resolve vertically, not sideways. I will go full short if we have a euphoric move up in the next two months

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EDIT: 1900 target was for S&P, i find it difficult to pick targets on UVXY.

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Exercise patience. I am still waiting to add since my initial buy in. Looks like it is near (August/September). If the market is still good by end of October, then I believe the major drop doesn't happen until fall 2022.

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Its a fakeout in my opinion, went up too much too fast. I believe this is the warning signal before the real drop that starts in August/september. Still patiently waiting until i see something that convinces me otherwise.

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IG news, margin debt is finally dropping. Looks like bulls are finally running out of money. market peak can be around October at the latest IMO. Prepping to go long volatility again.

I expect one last bull push in this time. 4650-4750 is possible last gasp.

www.finra.org/invest...ng/margin-statistics
www.advisorperspecti...decline-in-15-months