That and the monthly time frame tell me that this is the most likely scenario at the moment. This will result in a long term consolidation, however the range is relatively large and will therefore still present many trading opportunities. Short term I'm looking for a break lower.
For my post of 3 months ago see below:
The 1 hour time frame shows an important contraction zone on the left and we need to break below for more price action and high probability sell trades.
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'I still favor a move lower. If it moves higher and breaks above 49 I have to adjust but until that happens I favor another leg lower. Even if we move above 49 I don't think the long term bottom for oil is in place. But we will see, for now I focus on a potential reversal.'
I've reason to believe that once this correction is over we need a new low (long term, back to 2009).After the big winner by means of the short call (when most traders were biased long) I didn't trade Oil. There was no reason for me, buying was too risky for me in this zone and risk/reward not interesting enough. So I traded other instruments.
If you don't understand a comment or post from me please try to explain what you don't understand.
The fact that I'm often alone in my bias is a good thing, only 5% of the traders actually win so following the herd is a way to loose your account. Besides I don't need to follow others and haven't seen anything that can change my mind just yet. I also don't need to be right as long as I only trade when I'm right. That's why I always present IF=THEN scenario's.
If I explain my whole analysis I will confuse most traders so I either explain a clear set-up with context or I don't post.