Since intervention, TRY speculation is less attractive

Pros
REER based TRY undervaluation: 47%
National Bank stepped in to protect TRY
Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment
It is relatively expensive to short the TRY

Cons
Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey

Kommentar:

Tomorrows CBT interest rate decision critical risk-event. Market is pricing a hike of roughly 50-75 bps on average, anything below that means TRY under attack again.

Kommentar:

Setup playing out well: Turkey announces a 125bp hike in the repo rate, thats more than expected, lira on the frontfoot

Order storniert:

No positioned opened on this setup, very speculative, hard to build an edge on a market where Central Banks can intervene at any moment.