(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
With price action extending its bearish position south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday, currently mixing in around the 108.31ish region, demand coming in from 105.70/106.66 remains a focal point on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 106.75/107.22 elbowed its way into the spotlight in recent trading, following a retest at the underside of 108.53 at the beginning of the week. Price action traders may also note the current demand is positioned just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
H1 timeframe:
Early London Tuesday witnessed USD/JPY subdue the 107.50 point and greet the 107 handle amid US trade, which, as you can see, prompted a mild bout of short covering into the close.
Technically, we are compressing within a descending channel pattern from 108.52/107.51 right now, with the RSI indicator attempting to regain a foothold out of oversold territory. A break beneath 107 today could see a run to 106 due to the lack of demand seen to the left of price – check out the (potential) demand consumption tails (March 17) around 106.29/22/16.
Structures of Interest: Healthy buying out of H4 demand at 106.75/107.22 might be enough to generate a move through channel resistance on the H1 timeframe. This, to some technicians, may be considered a buy signal to at least 107.50 and potentially beyond.
Traders, however, are urged to chalk up the possibility of a breach beneath the current H4 demand into daily demand coming in from 105.70/106.66, before buyers step in. This area could also, despite H1 price action showing room to move towards 106, halt downside.
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