H4 rising wedge on shaky ground should H1 hold supply
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remains subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached on May 11 in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the said pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an objective of around 109.30.
However, in order to reach the noted take-profit target, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.27 will need to be defeated.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
After bottoming at 105.99, H4 activity has been chalking up what appears to be a rising wedge pattern, with price action closing in on the apex. Take profit targets out of rising wedge patterns are commonly measured by taking the base value and adding this figure to the breakout point.
Structurally, supply at 108.10/107.79 is also present, along with a local demand area at 107.21/107.41. A break of the latter advertises moves to support priced in from 106.91.
H1 timeframe:
Trendline resistance (prior support – 106.85), together with another local trendline resistance (108.08) and a supply pencilled in from 107.69/107.59 as well as the 100-period simple moving average at 107.60, collectively capped upside amid the US session Friday.
Violating the current resistances today/this week unearths 108 as resistance; a rejection, though, may dip as far south as demand at 107.15/107.23.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Daily price displays room to approach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.27 and the falling wedge take-profit target of around 109.30.
Short term:
Should H1 hold space around current supply and trendline resistances, this may be considered a forerunner to decisively break out of the H4 rising wedge, a move that could swarm H4 demand at 107.21/107.41 and attack H4 support at 106.91. Essentially, this represents a similar outlook to Friday.
The point the two H1 trendlines join (green), however, offers particularly interesting resistance.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remains subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached on May 11 in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the said pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an objective of around 109.30.
However, in order to reach the noted take-profit target, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.27 will need to be defeated.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
After bottoming at 105.99, H4 activity has been chalking up what appears to be a rising wedge pattern, with price action closing in on the apex. Take profit targets out of rising wedge patterns are commonly measured by taking the base value and adding this figure to the breakout point.
Structurally, supply at 108.10/107.79 is also present, along with a local demand area at 107.21/107.41. A break of the latter advertises moves to support priced in from 106.91.
H1 timeframe:
Trendline resistance (prior support – 106.85), together with another local trendline resistance (108.08) and a supply pencilled in from 107.69/107.59 as well as the 100-period simple moving average at 107.60, collectively capped upside amid the US session Friday.
Violating the current resistances today/this week unearths 108 as resistance; a rejection, though, may dip as far south as demand at 107.15/107.23.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Daily price displays room to approach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.27 and the falling wedge take-profit target of around 109.30.
Short term:
Should H1 hold space around current supply and trendline resistances, this may be considered a forerunner to decisively break out of the H4 rising wedge, a move that could swarm H4 demand at 107.21/107.41 and attack H4 support at 106.91. Essentially, this represents a similar outlook to Friday.
The point the two H1 trendlines join (green), however, offers particularly interesting resistance.
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