Jackson Hole: The event that investors waited all week

The event that investors waited all week for is finally here. Central bankers from around the world are gathering at Jackson Hole over the next few days for the Federal Reserve’s economic symposium. The topic is “fostering a dynamic global economy,” but the focus will be on Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi’s plans for monetary policy. Expectations are high for this annual event but in our experience, central bankers are eager to under deliver. Due to the uncertainty in the global markets and recent sell-off in U.S. stocks, there’s no better reason than the now for Yellen and Draghi to stick to script. For Yellen that means confirming balance sheet changes are needed to ensure future financial stability but she may not say much more to avoid creating greater uncertainty ahead of the debt ceiling fight, which could be viewed as a disappointment to dollar bulls. Leading up to her speech, we still expect the dollar to hold onto its gains as investors hope for hawkishness from the Fed. The dollar could also rise on her comments but unless she says rates are rising in December, the gains probably won’t last.
The latest U.S. reports provided no support to the greenback as jobless claims ticked up and existing home sales dropped for the third time in four months. Durable goods orders are scheduled for release tomorrow but Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at 10AM NY Time / 14 GMT will be the main event.

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