President Donald Trump said on Thursday tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods will kick-in at 12:01 a.m. EST on Friday morning. Another $16 billion are expected to go into effect in two weeks, he said.
Trump's statements reinforce earlier threats that he would escalate the trade conflict if Beijing retaliates. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/trump-says-us-will-impose-16-billion-in-additional-tariffs-on-china-i.html
Mit Chinas Gegenschlag droht der Handelskrieg
Chinas Angst vor dem Knall
Der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China droht zu eskalieren: Am Freitag treten Strafzölle von US-Präsident Trump in Kraft. Die Börsen in China fallen, die Verluste betragen schon mehrere Hundert Milliarden. http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/boerse-in-china-anleger-zittern-vor-handelskrieg-mit-den-usa-a-1216427.html
Der Kurseinbruch des Yuan kann dementsprechend aufgrund von zwei Gründen erfolgen:
1. Der Tradewar belastet China
2. China lässt den Renminbi kurzzeitig in den freien Fall übergehen, um ein Warnsignal in die USA zu senden.
Eine Abwertung des Renminbi für zu einer jahrelangen Abwärtsspirale der asiatischen PPI`s, wie zuletzt von 2012 bis 2017 mehr als 60 Monate in Folge. Dieser Effekt für zu zurückgehendem CAPEX und dies wiederum wirkt direkt auf das jeweilige GDP.
China will keep the currency stable at an equilibrium level, and the central bank will maintain a prudent, neutral policy stance, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang.
Using standard language to describe the stance on the currency, Yi said the central bank will "keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced level." That and comments by another PBOC official earlier on Tuesday are the first clear statement on the currency by the central bank since the yuan started weakening in mid-June.
"Recently the foreign exchange market has shown some volatility and we’re paying close attention to that," Yi said in a statement responding to a request by the China Securities Journal posted on the central bank’s website. The fluctuation is "mainly due to factors such as a stronger dollar and external uncertainties, and there’s been some pro-cyclical behavior," he said.
The yuan is the worst performing currency in Asia over the past month, losing more than 4 percent against the dollar as the domestic economy slows and the nation slides closer to a trade war with the U.S. The currency strengthened immediately after the comments were reported, having earlier weakened beyond 6.7 to the dollar.
“The PBOC is sending a verbal warning and intervention that the recent slump in the yuan was too quick,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG (DE:CBKG) in Singapore. “In the short term, the yuan could strengthen as traders take profit from the recent slide. But if the market ignores the PBOC and keeps pushing the yuan weaker quickly, the central bank may conduct heavy intervention to send a stronger signal.”
Yuan-Kursverfall sorgt für Unruhe
Der seit geraumer Zeit andauernde Kursverfall des Yuan ruft Chinas Notenbank auf den Plan. Sie versucht die Anleger zu beruhigen. Ein festerer US-Dollar und Unsicherheiten im Ausland seien für die Schwankungen verantwortlich, heißt es.
Modern wars are fought with precision tactics and tools like drones, targeted strikes and heavy reconnaissance to identify where the enemy is weakest. But, as any military historian will tell you, wars used to involve far more blunt tools, like catapults and trebuchets, to inflict maximum damage on the enemy; friendly fire be damned.
With the growing U.S.-China trade spat increasingly dominating the headlines (see “AUD/JPY: How FX traders will know that the “trade war” has started in earnest” for more on the topic), the markets have belatedly turned their focus to one of the original, blunt weapons of trade warfare: currency devaluation.
China’s currency headed for its biggest two-day gain against the dollar since January on Thursday afternoon, as the central bank apparently intervened to support the renminbi amid tepid market demand for the Chinese currency.
Traders said that large state-owned banks sold dollars aggressively on Wednesday and Thursday. Such concerted trading is usually viewed as a sign that these institutions are acting on behalf of the central bank to prop up demand for the renminbi. https://www.ft.com/content/b606023a-468c-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996