"Trade what you see, not what you think!"

28. März 2021

... and try to find multiple-100s of pips, even in over-manipulated junk such as the USDCHF.
Let's see if it's possible...


The title chart is the USDCHF Monthly, as it stands at the end of this quarter - 03/2021. What is the story here?...

• It appears that this pair is rather predictable and has been obeying all the major support/resistance levels (PRZs), going as far back as one cares to look;

• It is also clear that this pair continues to do so despite the relentless manipulation (money printing) of the SNB;

• That massive 42.5% jump of the CHF vs. the USD, between 2009-2012 (which has not been recovered since), ...
  
  ... back when the whole world seemed to come apart ("The Great Financial Crisis" + European Sovereign Crisis), the Swiss Franc still remained one of only two, true Safe Haven currencies in the entire world! (beside the Japanese Yen and despite every imaginable liquidity constraint.)

• Fast forward to the Covid Pandemic ...
  
  ... and the Franc did it's thing, once again, with an immediate +11.5% rise versus the USD, again, in what appeared to be the end of the (financial) world. However, several more things are noteworthy during this period;
  - Had the SNB paid attention, they would have already known (or at least expect) that the support zone which formed back in 2014, at 0.8750, and which prompted a strait and virtually immediate -17.5% slump in the Franc vs. the Dollar, would stop and hold back the continued and "uncomfortable" advance of the Franc, this time around, as well; (The decision makers at the SNB are no different from the rest of clueless bureaucrats, typical for any other Central Bank lackey, anywhere else in the world. The only difference may be that they tend to have longer-term mandates and tenures.)
  - Had they paid attention they also would have found it to be unnecessary to increase the printing of the Franc by a whopping +29% month-over-month (CHF60 Billion per), right into oblivion, or at least until they shot strait to the top of the pile and became one of the largest public investor in the Nasdaq100, scrapping 800+ years of Swiss tradition and thus tying Swiss fortunes to the likes of Apple and Netflix.
  - Had they paid attention to their own history and tradition, they would have also realized a couple of fundamental truths;
  1) No amount of printer ink will stop the worlds love affair - well in excess of Swiss GDP - with the Swiss Franc, any time when the the end of the world is nigh; (I.e. The reliance on Swiss resilience and frugal nature.)
  2) With a Swiss ruling class (top 5%) having more wealth than any other nation on earth (in relative terms), reclusive, invisible and may be even boring as they may be, they will have their Central Bankers' heads on a pike (all the heads on one pike; The Swiss are frugal) way before any of them can do permanent or even lasting damage to the Swiss Franc and well before they can all shout "Mein Gott!" (or "Mon Dieu!", dependent on the particular central banker's regional origins).

• Just in case should any of the above appear to be idle speculation, here is a gentle reminder; Does anyone recall Jan. 15, 2015? - When the SNB unceremoniously pulled the peg to the Euro, without any further (or previous) ado! Enough said.

• The Franc has been in a heavy uptrend vs. the USD even before the Covid Pandemic;
  

Moving on...

As it currently stands (at the end of March, 2021) the top three FX Carry Trades are;

• USDCHF

• USDJPY

• EURUSD

... in order of skew - lopsidedness. (check the C.O.T., FX positioning, etc.)
The Euro most likely being a transient phenomena, much like the ad-hoc, incompetent, protectionist, paradoxically conceived unionist nightmare of a Trans-national alliance which issues it... Not a factor. (The next, not-too-distant Euro-crisis will have to attest to that.) - And, as always, that leaves the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, once again, as the only remaining Safe Haven currencies of any gravitas.
Clearly, liquidity is a determining factor here and that leaves the Yen as the only Safe Haven currency with any substantial (i.e. Global) shock absorption potential, as this chart should underline the notion;

- As for the Swiss Franc... For one, this Monthly Chart illustrates several of the above catalogued fundamental thesis. Simply put, the USD was an obvious and helluva buy vs. the CHF, ever since following the Euro Zone's Sovereign Crisis where, in crisi-upon-crisis, end-of-the-world situations (such as a Pandemic), the obvious maximum pain-threshold of the Swiss National Bank lies in the 0.8750-0.8800 area vs. the USD.
Clearly, that is the area where they are likely to go all-in, given any prolonged future appreciation of the Franc vs. the USD.
The rest of the fluctuations in this pair are simply the product of the musical chairs methodology applied as (or rather: instead of) the"economic stability" mandate of the 18 or so Central Banks around the world which may be soon to be the proud parent/owners of 60% of the world's newly socialized, Soviet-style economies. - And, as has been established above, this pair presently being one of the premier Carry Trades.
So, what is the play here, if any?...

Having established somewhat of a fundamental picture, what are the technicals here?

The Weekly Chart;

... clearly shows that the CHF tends to move (or rather: be moved by the SNB) in strait, predictable drives, respecting Quarter Point targets along the way. (OK, so the Swiss are anal. What a shock!)
This whole technical picture stands the reason since all movement here, in this no-man's-land, is due to the whole civilized world continuously and relentlessly purchasing the Franc, day in, day out, from sun up to sun down, until the SNB wakes up and decides to push back by running the money printing press to the tune of CHF60-80 Billion at a pop - per month. E.g. There was that textbook ABCD pattern (World buying, SNB printing/selling; Rinse and repeat.), including it's "mandatory" 61.8% retracement. However, after which all potential ensuing suspense was interrupted by the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic, sending the Franc on an immediate 900 pip, +9% initial tear and well before any of the SNB peons could ever make it back into the office.
Of course that support zone between 0.875-0.9000 having been in place for the better part of 7 years, no great surprise that it caught that strait, end-of-the-world tear the Franc was on by forcing the SNB to go all-in at that point. (At which point you have also naturally unloaded, with both hands and eyes closed, on the Swiss Franc while front-running the SNB, even if you had to mortgage your unborn children to a local loan shark just so you could short more of the Franc and to load up endlessly on the Dollar, right?! - Good job!)
But what if, due to unforeseen circumstances, that initial 600+ pip free-ride was missed, all the way from 0.8750 to the present day 0.9400 level? Now what?

First of all, there is a perfectly formed Cypher working here - still on the weekly - with it's C-D leg consisting of an also a textbook 3-Drive, already having cleared the first two Fibonacci levels of it's three legs

... while heading strait for a major confluence(resistance) zone, naturally coinciding with the Cypher's PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone).
That confluence zone between 0.9500 -0.9650 consists, at a minimum, of;

• 2 year, descending Trend Line;

• The (descending) Monthly 20 EMA;

• The (descending) Weekly 50 EMA;
  

• The 3rd (and final) Fibonacci extension of that weekly 3-Drive;

• The (descending) Daily 200 EMA;
  

E.g. It is reasonable to assume that this pair will have difficulty to get above that 0.9600-0.9650 level, in no small part due to the already extended +8%, 34 (Daily) period strait rise which would take it up there.
Secondarily, it was established earlier that the USDCHF pair is currently in a Major Down Trend according to the Quarterly and Monthly charts, and in a strong Minor Up Trend due to the Weekly + Daily charts.
Put it all together and the first leg of this Counter-trend Trade points to a M.U.T. (maximum upside target) 0.9650. That is the Exit for the First Leg.

As for the Entry for the First Leg;



As it happens, this pair has just completed a Bearish Shark (harmonic) formation on the 4 hr. chart with the pair reacting to the PRZ, much as expected.
The expected retracement of this harmonic to it's First Price Target around 0.9340, coinciding with the 4 hr. 20 EMA, is reasonably expected to provide a clean Entry for the first leg of this trade with a very favorable risk/reward ratio.
(There are reasonably reliable methods by which to enter trades, such as this up-leg, with constrained risk levels;

... but that's an entirely other conversation.)

Finally, put it all together;

... and this is what one is looking for here:

• The up-leg of a counter-trend(!!) trade;

• Entry: 0.9327-0.9317;

• Target- Exit: 0.9560-0.9580;

• Risk/Reward: 1:17.5;

• Number of pips: 250;

• Total expected trading period: 115 hours (4.8 days);

The End Game

Should chance favor the above plan/analysis/Trade Setup/outcome, that would bring a planned entry into the Primary (trend-wise; Down) Leg the forefront. (One has to cross bridges as they present themselves.)
In that case, one would expect a strong and immediate reaction in the PRZ of the (by then) valid Cypher on the weekly chart - which, if valid, is normally a very strong and reliable harmonic.
... and this is what one would be looking for, in that case:

• The down-leg of a in-trend(!!) trade;

• Entry: 0.9620-0.9640;

• Target- Exit: 0.9200-0.9190;

• Risk/Reward: 1:15;

• Number of pips: 400-450;

• Total expected trading period: 7 weeks (~70 days);

Note
The USDCHF currently being one of the primary carry trades, this pair's trajectory has far(ther) reaching implications for U.S. and Global equity index positioning - also referred to as: Risk On/Off.
Furthermore, due to the notable liquidity constrains of the CHF vs. it's peers, this pair is an instructive barometer on which to measure the ever-present state of the global game of musical chairs, staged by the various Central Banks of the world.