optimal dow short?
Been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the next trade. No volatility, nothin' happening. No gains to be made. Waiting, waiting waiting.
It's like a little kid inside me "can I trade now? can I trade now? can I trade now?" Rational mind has to say "not yet... Okay now!"
Can see my two market top calls on the Dow - I removed a lot of em from other social media but they're on my TV account or the blog.
This is DJI, so it doesn't have big AI companies like NVDA. Today nas/S&P dropped and DJI got a great op-ex shuffle and good boost. Been waiting for this - had it drawn on my chart - catch that ripple.
I had closed my bigger shorts (prop only, so not live ammo quite yet) and got a lot of the move, waited for the retrace and economic data to line up to find this one today. And it was a painfulllllyyyy long wait.
Market is betting towards 2+ cuts again this year, and either the cuts happen, money is printed, and markets go to infinity as the USD drops, or else the fed counters the US spending by holding rates up, at least until something breaks. I'm betting more on this side, that the fed will over-shoot if only to preserve the USD a little longer, and the market has it wrong, stuff will break. At the same time, I'm seeing the M2 expanding some something is happening over there...
The Fed holding rates up strengthens the dollar, lets enough pain appear to hopefully get inflation under 3 (at least "CPI" well... That's a topic for another day.) But things aren't working the way the fed expects - people are just giving up on the american dream and spending themselves into oblivion. Like who? Oh I don't know, maybe the american government itself 😛 The government spending is so off base, the republicans are even talking about taking over the fed and setting the interest rates themselves. It's just insanity. Have to be nimble, if I start to see the fed or government caving before things start cracking, I'll go with the fed, assume currency is going to 0 and BTC and whatever else is going to the moooooonnn!
So far been spot on with my 72k top call on BTC *bows* however, I think after this sell off, whever it leaks - 60k 50k 30k - we'll probably find the seeds for the greatest bull-run that will ever occur in probably any asset class ever. Near term, I'm still reading BTC as the ultimate risk asset - it's very responsive to sentiment in the narratives and economic data. I was really distracted during the last crypto run, I knew it was happening and was calling moves but I chickened out of an all-in position on a prop account at 30k. Would have been a pretty good payoff, I just remember those nights and days when I wasn't quite stable enough to sit on my hands. I was like "nah this is crazy, I'm going to be" and it ended up being the most perfect, 0 risk all in position and call. It was only like a half btc, still woulda been 20k trade.
Anyway, I think this Dow short is safe, I seldom trade swing positions but I'll look at this for a few days at least. This makes sense honestly for a pretty good contraction to me if the fed doesn't just immediately start slashing rates.
I don't post it if I don't think it'll land, my track record is good on ideas I publish.
If it shelves tomorrow, I'll get heavy. Need to get the big funding sorted out stat.
It's like a little kid inside me "can I trade now? can I trade now? can I trade now?" Rational mind has to say "not yet... Okay now!"
Can see my two market top calls on the Dow - I removed a lot of em from other social media but they're on my TV account or the blog.
This is DJI, so it doesn't have big AI companies like NVDA. Today nas/S&P dropped and DJI got a great op-ex shuffle and good boost. Been waiting for this - had it drawn on my chart - catch that ripple.
I had closed my bigger shorts (prop only, so not live ammo quite yet) and got a lot of the move, waited for the retrace and economic data to line up to find this one today. And it was a painfulllllyyyy long wait.
Market is betting towards 2+ cuts again this year, and either the cuts happen, money is printed, and markets go to infinity as the USD drops, or else the fed counters the US spending by holding rates up, at least until something breaks. I'm betting more on this side, that the fed will over-shoot if only to preserve the USD a little longer, and the market has it wrong, stuff will break. At the same time, I'm seeing the M2 expanding some something is happening over there...
The Fed holding rates up strengthens the dollar, lets enough pain appear to hopefully get inflation under 3 (at least "CPI" well... That's a topic for another day.) But things aren't working the way the fed expects - people are just giving up on the american dream and spending themselves into oblivion. Like who? Oh I don't know, maybe the american government itself 😛 The government spending is so off base, the republicans are even talking about taking over the fed and setting the interest rates themselves. It's just insanity. Have to be nimble, if I start to see the fed or government caving before things start cracking, I'll go with the fed, assume currency is going to 0 and BTC and whatever else is going to the moooooonnn!
So far been spot on with my 72k top call on BTC *bows* however, I think after this sell off, whever it leaks - 60k 50k 30k - we'll probably find the seeds for the greatest bull-run that will ever occur in probably any asset class ever. Near term, I'm still reading BTC as the ultimate risk asset - it's very responsive to sentiment in the narratives and economic data. I was really distracted during the last crypto run, I knew it was happening and was calling moves but I chickened out of an all-in position on a prop account at 30k. Would have been a pretty good payoff, I just remember those nights and days when I wasn't quite stable enough to sit on my hands. I was like "nah this is crazy, I'm going to be" and it ended up being the most perfect, 0 risk all in position and call. It was only like a half btc, still woulda been 20k trade.
Anyway, I think this Dow short is safe, I seldom trade swing positions but I'll look at this for a few days at least. This makes sense honestly for a pretty good contraction to me if the fed doesn't just immediately start slashing rates.
I don't post it if I don't think it'll land, my track record is good on ideas I publish.
If it shelves tomorrow, I'll get heavy. Need to get the big funding sorted out stat.
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