Today we dive deeper into the macroeconomic indicators. People who follow my space know my bias toward 
US10Y for market signals. Since months we are following the US10Y within this downward slopping parallel regression channel. On May 2 we predicted that we might see 3.5% by Dec 2025.
US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low. for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
The target seems to be far-fetched with Fed staying put with the short-term interest rates. But what we did not observe is theUSM2 increasing simultaneously. USM2 is the M2 money supply in the economy. This is increasing due to higher fiscal spending. This has resulted in fall in 
DXY and higher stock markets. At 22.1 T $ USM2 is above the Covid highs of 21.7 T $.
Despite of expanding fiscal spending the US Unemployment rate is increasing recently. With current rate of 4.21 % it is a multi-year high.
So as equity and Crypto investors what should we expect? In my opinion higherUSM2, rangebound US10Y and UNRATE < 5% we remain bullish. Higher USM2, lower US10Y and UNRATE > 4.5% we get a small correction, but we buy the dip. Higher USM2, US10Y < 3.5% and UNRATE > 5% we will be in recession, and we keep on buying Stocks and Crypto for bounce back.
Verdict: Macroeconomic indicators on poor footing. Whatever happens we buy Stocks and $BTC. Recession is just an opportunity to outsize portfolios.
US10Y for market signals. Since months we are following the US10Y within this downward slopping parallel regression channel. On May 2 we predicted that we might see 3.5% by Dec 2025. US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low. for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView The target seems to be far-fetched with Fed staying put with the short-term interest rates. But what we did not observe is the
USM2 increasing simultaneously. USM2 is the M2 money supply in the economy. This is increasing due to higher fiscal spending. This has resulted in fall in DXY and higher stock markets. At 22.1 T $ USM2 is above the Covid highs of 21.7 T $. Despite of expanding fiscal spending the US Unemployment rate is increasing recently. With current rate of 4.21 % it is a multi-year high.
So as equity and Crypto investors what should we expect? In my opinion higher
USM2, rangebound US10Y and UNRATE < 5% we remain bullish. Higher USM2, lower US10Y and UNRATE > 4.5% we get a small correction, but we buy the dip. Higher USM2, US10Y < 3.5% and UNRATE > 5% we will be in recession, and we keep on buying Stocks and Crypto for bounce back. Verdict: Macroeconomic indicators on poor footing. Whatever happens we buy Stocks and $BTC. Recession is just an opportunity to outsize portfolios.
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Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.