SPY Analysis of week ending October 14
SPY Weekly high is 370.26, the low pushed below the Sep 26 low of 357.08, SPY then BARELY closed above the Sep 26 low by .55
Prices had closed back into the box with a high of 379.46 and a new low of 348.11
With a 3 period box formed, the 3 period stochastic is at 30.37% of the range. With a move above the 30% mark, this is considered a challenge to 50% of range or 363.79
The weekly range itself was 22.15 points with a close in the middle of the bar or 42.98% of the range.
This generally indicates that prices have no idea which way they want to go. They are at a point of indecision as far as which direction to move in.
The bar itself is a lower high than the previous bar and lower low than the previous bar. With the close in the middle of the bar there is approximately 50% probability of a movement in either direction.
Decisions on this undecided negative bar wouldn't currently be prudent.
Wait the week out.
For bullish activity, looking for a FRIDAY CLOSE in the next week over 371.
For bearish activity, looking for a FRIDAY CLOSE in the next week under 347.41
Keep in mind that last month close below the June low gave the "Kiss of Death" to the market.
The difference between the potential challenge of 363.79 and the current close of 357.63 is 6.16 points.
The average 12 period weekly ATR (SMA) is 18.18.
6.16 / 18.18 = 32.6% of range.
This is also where a typical high would form if we continued down.
That leaves ~12.02 points to form the low potentially of 345.61 (unless fear takes over and drags prices lower).
This places the potential low BELOW the 3 week box.
IF the WEEKLY close is below this area, this indicates further decline of about 32 points to ~316.76
The Orion:RSI is indicating further weakness by moving below 50, needed a close above 379.46 to validate last weeks strength increase, that follow-thru failed to materialize.
Tighten your stops folks! Probability is favoring further lows.
Prices had closed back into the box with a high of 379.46 and a new low of 348.11
With a 3 period box formed, the 3 period stochastic is at 30.37% of the range. With a move above the 30% mark, this is considered a challenge to 50% of range or 363.79
The weekly range itself was 22.15 points with a close in the middle of the bar or 42.98% of the range.
This generally indicates that prices have no idea which way they want to go. They are at a point of indecision as far as which direction to move in.
The bar itself is a lower high than the previous bar and lower low than the previous bar. With the close in the middle of the bar there is approximately 50% probability of a movement in either direction.
Decisions on this undecided negative bar wouldn't currently be prudent.
Wait the week out.
For bullish activity, looking for a FRIDAY CLOSE in the next week over 371.
For bearish activity, looking for a FRIDAY CLOSE in the next week under 347.41
Keep in mind that last month close below the June low gave the "Kiss of Death" to the market.
The difference between the potential challenge of 363.79 and the current close of 357.63 is 6.16 points.
The average 12 period weekly ATR (SMA) is 18.18.
6.16 / 18.18 = 32.6% of range.
This is also where a typical high would form if we continued down.
That leaves ~12.02 points to form the low potentially of 345.61 (unless fear takes over and drags prices lower).
This places the potential low BELOW the 3 week box.
IF the WEEKLY close is below this area, this indicates further decline of about 32 points to ~316.76
The Orion:RSI is indicating further weakness by moving below 50, needed a close above 379.46 to validate last weeks strength increase, that follow-thru failed to materialize.
Tighten your stops folks! Probability is favoring further lows.
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