AndrewBBrown
Short

Unfilled gap in SPY on Jan 30, 2018 (hidden)

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
High on the daily is 284.74, but the highest trade that day was 283.29.

The error in chart data means no one knows the gap is unfilled. An unfilled gap is extremely bearish , especially in the S&P             . My target is 210. For safety, I'd cover around 215.


Something occurred on that previous weekend and we're seeing a fundamental shift in the market. President Trump's State of the Union address was the same day, and we have a new Fed chairman.

The push through recent lows happened faster than I expected. I'd consider that a measured move and exit as it pushes toward a $245 target.

Intermediate term, I see the market bouncing between $245 and $260 as it consolidates and builds a resistance area, before another leg down.

Fundamentally, I see the market as eliminating its financial component and refocusing on providing value. Cash flow. Long term products and services offered.

An interesting example is GE. Can GE's management get out of the finance mindset and focus on the highest quality washing machines for export?
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Even if the apparent data error on the 30th is correct, there is a 2nd breakaway gap on Feb 2.

As mentioned, the last time something similar happened was in the 1930's. DJIA dropped over 80% and it took over 20 years to recover.
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Looking at the chart on Jan 26 to Jan 29, it looks like someone had an argument or divorce on Sunday night. They sold Monday morning. Some traders thought 'no big deal' and treated it as a normal market event and we closed flat for the morning. After lunch, pros wanted out.

And Tuesday morning was the day everyone else found out.
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A down gap on June 9, 1930 resulted in an 84% decline and remained uncovered for 21 years. - Peter L Brandt

That looks to be the last down gap in DJIA history. Nasdaq filled its gap, but DJIA and SPX did not.
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