SPx - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Key Economic Data Awaits

9. Sept.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis:

The price is currently trading below the pivot level of 5454, with a potential downside target of 5412. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5456 and 5412 until a breakout occurs. A sustained move above 5454 would likely support a rise towards 5490 and potentially 5526. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5454 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.

Key Levels:

Pivot Point: 5454
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5412, 5460, 5328

Expected Trading Range: 5471 - 5412
Trend: Short-term downtrend

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Monetary Policy Shift Anticipated Amid Key Economic Releases
With the economy in balance and inflation trending toward the 2% target, it is now seen as appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate.

Currently, U.S. rate futures indicate a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

In the coming week, the spotlight will be on the U.S. consumer inflation report for August. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor other key economic indicators, including the U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.