S&P Short: Fundamental and Undeniable TA
Aktualisiert
Too many times when people see something they don't want to accept they will dismiss the fundamental as being "too simple" and all the thoughts that follow after that are mental gymnastics to avoid the truth of the matter. If you are at all bullish in the macro time frame you, bluntly, are wrong.
Fundamental 1: Bearish Divergence on the Monthly Time frame
Going back to 1996 I showed three historic occasions were bearish divergence set in, with there being higher highs on the price actoin but the RSI experiencing lower lows. The first example is of course the dot.com bubble and it shows a massive bubble that broke down when the RSI resistance line finally cleared 80, indicating we were completley leaving overbought conditions. This divergence was set aside in a different color due to how atypical it was. Usually the MACD can help us find when to exit with a bearish cross but for years the bearish cross was teased and didn't properly occur, and the Elliot Wave count is no where as clear as we have it now. All of the bearish divergent examples in blue are crystal clear, without to many peaks and accompanied by a clean MACD cross.
Fundamental 2: Textbook Elliot Wave Count
One of the fundamentals of charting is the elliot wave, and without breaking down all the tedious ratios and guidelines we can see that over the course of six years we have been on a tear. You cannot blame this formation on any one administration or party or global entity, or "coincidence" it is a fundamental and primal movement in price action. Very likely we will see the textbook ABC correction, complete with bear trap over the next couple of months. We have the spinning top acting as our reversal candle and the declining volume confirms Wave 5. We have the bearish divergence and the MACD cross looks like it will be crisp and clean in a weeks time, and not that mess we in our first example.
Y'all bulls can play in the lower timeframes, game the bull trap, so forth and so on but your global bias should be bear.
Fundamental 1: Bearish Divergence on the Monthly Time frame
Going back to 1996 I showed three historic occasions were bearish divergence set in, with there being higher highs on the price actoin but the RSI experiencing lower lows. The first example is of course the dot.com bubble and it shows a massive bubble that broke down when the RSI resistance line finally cleared 80, indicating we were completley leaving overbought conditions. This divergence was set aside in a different color due to how atypical it was. Usually the MACD can help us find when to exit with a bearish cross but for years the bearish cross was teased and didn't properly occur, and the Elliot Wave count is no where as clear as we have it now. All of the bearish divergent examples in blue are crystal clear, without to many peaks and accompanied by a clean MACD cross.
Fundamental 2: Textbook Elliot Wave Count
One of the fundamentals of charting is the elliot wave, and without breaking down all the tedious ratios and guidelines we can see that over the course of six years we have been on a tear. You cannot blame this formation on any one administration or party or global entity, or "coincidence" it is a fundamental and primal movement in price action. Very likely we will see the textbook ABC correction, complete with bear trap over the next couple of months. We have the spinning top acting as our reversal candle and the declining volume confirms Wave 5. We have the bearish divergence and the MACD cross looks like it will be crisp and clean in a weeks time, and not that mess we in our first example.
Y'all bulls can play in the lower timeframes, game the bull trap, so forth and so on but your global bias should be bear.
Anmerkung
The bull trap I have been talking about is developing as predicted, so if you want to short from higher up that opportunity will be upon you soon. The bull trap is visible with both hidden bullish divergence and classic divergence on the RSI and is set up with hidden bullish divergence and a daily MACD cross on the daily chart.
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